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An exploration of dynamic relationship between tourist arrivals, inflation, unemployment and crime rates in Malaysia

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  • Chor Foon Tang

Abstract

Purpose - The main purpose of this study is to examine the dynamic relationship between tourist arrivals, inflation, unemployment and crime rates in Malaysia. This study covered the annual data from 1970 to 2008. Design/methodology/approach - The multivariate Johansen‐Juselius cointegration test is employed to examine the potential long‐run equilibrium relationship. While the Granger causality test within the vector error‐correction modelling (VECM) framework is applied to determine the causal relationship between crime rate and its determinants. Findings - The Johansen‐Juselius cointegration test result reveals that the variables are cointegrated and the dynamic ordinary least squares estimator suggest that unemployment, inflation and tourist arrivals are positively related to crime rates in Malaysia. For Granger causality, in the long‐run tourist arrivals, inflation and unemployment rates Granger cause crime rate in Malaysia. However, in the short run we find bilateral causality between unemployment, crime and tourist arrivals. Finally, the variance decompositions and impulse response functions analyses implied that unemployment, inflation and tourist arrivals are important in explaining the variation in crime for Malaysia. Originality/value - The estimated crime rate function for Malaysia demonstrated that promoting supply‐side economy and also increases the numbers of police and patrolling duties in the potential crime areas will reduce the crime rate in Malaysia and in the same time attract more tourist arrivals to Malaysia.

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  • Chor Foon Tang, 2011. "An exploration of dynamic relationship between tourist arrivals, inflation, unemployment and crime rates in Malaysia," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 38(1), pages 50-69, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:ijsepp:v:38:y:2011:i:1:p:50-69
    DOI: 10.1108/03068291111091963
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    2. Shila Devi Ramadass & Murali Sambasivan & John Antony Xavier, 2018. "Collaboration outcomes in a public sector: impact of governance, leadership, interdependence and relational capital," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 22(3), pages 749-771, September.
    3. Jesús Iglesias & Manuel E Gegundez & Antonio A Golpe & José Carlos Vides, 2018. "How do foreign income shocks affect the magnitude of Spanish tourism?," Tourism Economics, , vol. 24(7), pages 839-871, November.
    4. Lau, Evan & Hamzah, Siti Nur Zahara, 2012. "Crimonometric Analysis: Testing the Deterrence Hypothesis in Sabah," MPRA Paper 39297, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Woei-Chyuan Wong & Adilah Azhari & Nur Adiana Hiau Abdullah & Chee Yin Yip, 2019. "Estimating the impact of crime risk on housing prices in Malaysia," International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 13(5), pages 769-789, November.
    6. Nurudeen Abu, 2019. "Inflation and Unemployment Trade-off: A Re-examination of the Phillips Curve and its Stability in Nigeria," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 13(1), March.
    7. Chien-Chiang Lee & Mei-Ping Chen & Yi-Ting Peng, 2021. "Tourism development and happiness: International evidence," Tourism Economics, , vol. 27(5), pages 1101-1136, August.
    8. Woraphon Yamaka & Xuefeng Zhang & Paravee Maneejuk, 2021. "Analyzing the Influence of Transportations on Chinese Inbound Tourism: Markov Switching Penalized Regression Approaches," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-23, March.
    9. Tang, Chor Foon, 2011. "Temporal Granger causality and the dynamics examination on the tourism-growth nexus in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 29237, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Kangoh Lee, 2018. "Unemployment and crime: the role of apprehension," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 59-80, February.
    11. Tang, Chor Foon & Tan, Bee Wah & Ozturk, Ilhan, 2016. "Energy consumption and economic growth in Vietnam," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1506-1514.
    12. Abdelmohsen A. Nassani & Abdullah Mohammed Aldakhil & Muhammad Moinuddin Qazi Abro & Khalid Zaman, 2018. "Effective International Tourism Management: A Strategic Approach," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 1201-1224, June.
    13. Tang, Chor Foon & Tan, Bee Wah, 2015. "The impact of energy consumption, income and foreign direct investment on carbon dioxide emissions in Vietnam," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 447-454.

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