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The Relationship between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the UK: 1885-1998

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  • Stilianos Fountas

    (Department of Economics, National University of Ireland, Galway)

Abstract

Using a long series of UK inflation data, I have provided strong evidence in favour of the hypothesis that inflationary periods are associated with high inflation uncertainty. This result supports the Friedman-Ball hypothesis and has important implications for the inflation-output relationship provided that more inflation uncertainty leads to lower output.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0048.

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Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision: 2000
Publication status: Published in Economics Letters, Vol. 74, No. 1, 2001
Handle: RePEc:nig:wpaper:0048

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References

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  1. Grier, Kevin B. & Perry, Mark J., 1998. "On inflation and inflation uncertainty in the G7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 671-689, August.
  2. Fischer, Stanley, 1981. "Towards an understanding of the costs of inflation: II," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 5-41, January.
  3. Engle, Robert F, 1983. "Estimates of the Variance of U.S. Inflation Based upon the ARCH Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(3), pages 286-301, August.
  4. Ball, Laurence, 1992. "Why does high inflation raise inflation uncertainty?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 371-388, June.
  5. Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos & Marika Karanassou, 2000. "A GARCH Model of Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty with Simultaneous Feedback," Working Papers 0047, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 2000.
  6. Evans, Martin, 1991. "Discovering the Link between Inflation Rates and Inflation Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 169-84, May.
  7. Davis, George K & Kanago, Bryce E, 2000. "The Level and Uncertainty of Inflation: Results from OECD Forecasts," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(1), pages 58-72, January.
  8. Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-72, June.
  9. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  10. repec:fth:galeco:47 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Cukierman, Alex & Wachtel, Paul, 1979. "Differential Inflationary Expectations and the Variability of the Rate of Inflation: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 595-609, September.
  12. Cosimano, Thomas F & Jansen, Dennis W, 1988. "Estimates of the Variance of U.S. Inflation Based upon the ARCH Model: A Comment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(3), pages 409-21, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Siti Hamizah Mohd & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Stilianos Fountas, 2013. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty And Output Growth: Recent Evidence From Asean-5 Countries," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 58(04), pages 1350030-1-1.
  2. Hachicha, Ahmed & Lean Hooi Hooi, 2013. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty and output in Tunisia," Economics Discussion Papers 2013-1, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  3. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Akram Hasanov & Stilianos Fountas, 2011. "Inflation and inflation uncertainty: Evidence from two Transition Economies," Discussion Paper Series 2011_05, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Apr 2011.
  4. Komain Jiranyakul & Timothy P. Opiela, 2011. "The Impact of Inflation Uncertainty on Output Growth and Inflation in Thailand," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 25(3), pages 291-307, 09.
  5. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2012. "The impacts of regime-switching structures and fat-tailed characteristics on the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 523-536.

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