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Money, Inflation, and Growth in Pakistan

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  • Qayyum, Abdul

Abstract

This paper attempts to investigate the linkage between the excess money supply growth and inflation in Pakistan and to test the validity of the monetarist stance that inflation is a monetary phenomenon. The results from the correlation analysis indicate that there is a positive association between money growth and inflation. The money supply growth at first-round affects real GDP growth and at the second round it affects inflation in Pakistan. The important finding from the analysis is that the excess money supply growth has been an important contributor to the rise in inflation in Pakistan during the study period, thus supporting the monetarist proposition that inflation in Pakistan is a monetary phenomenon. This may be due to the loose monetary policy adopted by the State Bank of Pakistan to show the high priority of the growth objective. The important policy implication is that inflation in Pakistan can be cured by a sufficiently tight monetary policy. The formulation of monetary policy must consider development in the real and financial sector and treat these sectors as constraints on the policy.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 2055.

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Date of creation: 2006
Date of revision: 2006
Publication status: Published in The Pakistan Development Review 2 (Summer 2006).45(2006): pp. 203-212
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:2055

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Keywords: Money Supply; Inflation; Growth; Quantity Theory; Monetary Policy; Pakistan;

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References

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  1. Gerald P. Dwyer, Jr. & R.W. Hafer, 1999. "Are money growth and inflation still related?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q2, pages 32-43.
  2. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
  3. Robert J. Gordon, 1985. "The Conduct of Domestic Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 1221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. George T. McCandless, Jr. & Warren E. Weber, 1995. "Some monetary facts," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 2-11.
  5. M Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2004. "Long-Run Structural Modelling," ESE Discussion Papers 44, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
  6. Michael D. Bordo & Lars Jonung, 1991. "The Long-Run Behavior of Velocity: The Institutional Approach Revisited," NBER Working Papers 3204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Qayyum, Abdul & Bilquees, Faiz, 2005. "P-Star Model: A Leading Indicator of Inflation for Pakistan," MPRA Paper 2058, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2005.
  8. Md. Akhtar Hossain, 1986. "Monetary Disequilibrium and Inflation. A Monetary Model of Inflation in Pakistan, 1963-82," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 25(2), pages 141-162.
  9. Allsop, Christopher & Vines, David, 2000. "The Assessment: Macroeconomic Policy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 1-32, Winter.
  10. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  11. M. Aynul Hasan & Ashfaque H. Khan & Hafiz A. Pasha & M. Ajaz Rasheed, 1995. "What Explains the Current High Rate of Inflation in Pakistan?," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 927-943.
  12. Cecchetti, Stephen G, 2000. "Making Monetary Policy: Objectives and Rules," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 43-59, Winter.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Khan, Safdar Ullah & Saqib, Omar Farooq, 2008. "Political Instability and Inflation in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 13056, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Jan 2009.
  2. Mushtaq, Siffat & Rashid, Abdul & Qayyum, Abdul, 2013. "On the Welfare Cost of Inflation: The Case of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 47549, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Saqib, Omar F & Omer, Muhamad, 2008. "Monetary Targeting in Pakistan: A Skeptical Note," MPRA Paper 14883, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Jalil, Abdul & Tariq, Rabbia & Bibi, Nazia, 2014. "Fiscal deficit and inflation: New evidences from Pakistan using a bounds testing approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 120-126.
  5. Syed Kumail Abbas Naqvi & Bushra Naqvi, 2010. "Asymmetric Behavior of Inflation Uncertainty and Friedman-Ball Hypothesis: Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 15(2), pages 1-33, Jul-Dec.
  6. Khalid Mushtaq & Abdul Ghafoor & Abedullah & Farhan Ahmad, 2011. "Impact of Monetary and Macroeconomic Factors on Wheat Prices in Pakistan: Implications for Food Security," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 16(1), pages 95-110, Jan-Jun.
  7. Sajid Amin Javed & Saud Ahmad Khan & Azad Haider & Farzana Shaheen, 2012. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty Nexus: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(3), pages 348-356.
  8. Khan, Rana Ejaz Ali & Gill, Abid Rashid, 2007. "Impact of Supply of Money on Food and General Price Indices: A Case of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 16293, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Nadia Saleem, 2008. "Measuring Volatility of Inflation in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 13(2), pages 99-128, Jul-Dec.

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