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P-Star Model: A Leading Indicator of Inflation for Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Abdul Qayyum

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)

  • Faiz Bilquees

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)

Abstract

The P-star inflation model is based on the long-term quantity theory of money and puts together the long-term determinants of the price level and the short-run changes in current inflation. The P-star model-based indicator has replaced the previous monetary policy procedures in a number of countries because it offers by far more information and predictive power than monitoring movements in money supply and the rate of monetary growth. In this paper we used the P-star model to calculate the leading indicator of inflation, and also to test the forecasting performance of the P-star model-based leading indicator of inflation. The results of the study show that compared to the simple autoregressive model and the M2 growth augmented model, the P-star model can be used to obtain the leading indicator of inflation in Pakistan because it has additional information about the future rate of inflation. Therefore, this paper provides a useful tool to the policy-makers to assess the future movement of inflation in Pakistan.

Suggested Citation

  • Abdul Qayyum & Faiz Bilquees, 2005. "P-Star Model: A Leading Indicator of Inflation for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 44(2), pages 117-129.
    • Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:44:y:2005:i:2:p:117-129
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Orphanides, Athanasios & Porter, Richard D., 2000. "P revisited: money-based inflation forecasts with a changing equilibrium velocity," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 87-100.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mehak Moazam & M. Ali Kemal, 2016. "Inflation in Pakistan: Money or Oil Prices," Working Papers id:11507, eSocialSciences.
    2. Abdul Qayyum, 2006. "Money, Inflation, and Growth in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 203-212.
    3. S. Adnan & H.A.S. BUKHARI & Safdar Ullah KHAN, 2008. "Does Volatility In Government Borrowing Leads To Higher Inflation? Evidence From Pakistan," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(3(5)_Fall), pages 187-202.
    4. Asma Awan & Hafiz Khalil Ahmad & Altaf Hussain & Muhammad Yousuf Khan Marri, 2021. "Prices, Money Supply and Output Nexus in Pakistan – A Macro Econometric Model," iRASD Journal of Economics, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 3(2), pages 38-77, September.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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