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P-Star Model under the Currency Board – The Case of Bulgaria 1997-2008

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Author Info

  • Mihalicova, Xenia

    () (Technical University in Košice, Němcovej 32, 040 00 Košice)

  • Gazda, Vladimír

    () (Technical University in Košice, Němcovej 32, 040 00 Košice)

  • Kubak, Matúš

    () (Technical University in Košice, Němcovej 32, 040 00 Košice)

  • Grof, Marek

    () (Technical University in Košice, Němcovej 32, 040 00 Košice)

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    Abstract

    The paper deals with the P-star model in conditions of the Bulgarian economy operating under the currency board regime. The research period covers 11 years of stabilisation after the Bulgarian 1996/97 financial crisis. Our findings are twofold. First, the significant influence of the German inflation was detected as a result of anchoring the Bulgarian Lev. Second, the domestic price gap influence is showed to be statistically insignificant.

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    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef3_11/rjef3_2011p83-91.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Romanian Journal for Economic Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): (2011)
    Issue (Month): 3 (September)
    Pages: 83-91
    Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
    Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2011:i:3:p:83-91

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    Related research

    Keywords: P-star model; Bulgaria; inflation; price gap;

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    References

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    1. Hallman, Jeffrey J & Porter, Richard D & Small, David H, 1991. "Is the Price Level Tied to the M2 Monetary Aggregate in the Long Run?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 841-58, September.
    2. Stefan Gerlach & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2000. "Money and Inflation in the Euro Area: A Case for Monetary Indicators?," NBER Working Papers 8025, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Thams, Andreas, 2007. "Inflation Transmission in the EMU: A Markov-Switching VECM Analysis," MPRA Paper 1643, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Dolado, Juan José & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 1990. "Cointegration and Unit Roots," Open Access publications from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid info:hdl:10016/3321, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.
    5. Yang, Jian & Guo, Hui & Wang, Zijun, 2006. "International transmission of inflation among G-7 countries: A data-determined VAR analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(10), pages 2681-2700, October.
    6. Karl-Heinz Tödter & Hans-Eggert Reimers, 1994. "P-Star as a link between money and prices in Germany," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 130(2), pages 273-289, June.
    7. Clemens J. M. Kool & John A. Tatom, 1994. "The P-star model in five small economies," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 11-29.
    8. John A. Tatom, 1990. "The P-star approach to the link between money and prices," Working Papers 1990-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    9. Hans Groeneveld, 1995. "Monetary spill-over effects in the ERM: The case of Austria, a former shadow member," Working Papers 20, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
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