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P-Star Model under the Currency Board – The Case of Bulgaria 1997-2008

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  • Mihalicova, Xenia

    ()
    (Technical University in Košice, Němcovej 32, 040 00 Košice)

  • Gazda, Vladimír

    ()
    (Technical University in Košice, Němcovej 32, 040 00 Košice)

  • Kubak, Matúš

    ()
    (Technical University in Košice, Němcovej 32, 040 00 Košice)

  • Grof, Marek

    ()
    (Technical University in Košice, Němcovej 32, 040 00 Košice)

Abstract

The paper deals with the P-star model in conditions of the Bulgarian economy operating under the currency board regime. The research period covers 11 years of stabilisation after the Bulgarian 1996/97 financial crisis. Our findings are twofold. First, the significant influence of the German inflation was detected as a result of anchoring the Bulgarian Lev. Second, the domestic price gap influence is showed to be statistically insignificant.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Institute for Economic Forecasting in its journal Romanian Journal for Economic Forecasting.

Volume (Year): (2011)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 83-91

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Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2011:i:3:p:83-91

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Keywords: P-star model; Bulgaria; inflation; price gap;

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  1. Yang, Jian & Guo, Hui & Wang, Zijun, 2006. "International transmission of inflation among G-7 countries: A data-determined VAR analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(10), pages 2681-2700, October.
  2. Karl-Heinz Tödter & Hans-Eggert Reimers, 1994. "P-Star as a link between money and prices in Germany," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 130(2), pages 273-289, June.
  3. Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E O, 2002. "Money and Inflation in the Euro-Area: A Case for Monetary Indicators?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3392, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. John A. Tatom, 1990. "The P-star approach to the link between money and prices," Working Papers 1990-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  5. Thams, Andreas, 2007. "Inflation Transmission in the EMU: A Markov-Switching VECM Analysis," MPRA Paper 1643, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. " Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 249-73.
  7. Peter Hoeller & Pierre Poret, 1991. "P-Star as an Indicator of Inflationary Pressure," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 101, OECD Publishing.
  8. Jan Frait & Luboš Komárek & Lumír Kulhánek, 1998. "Analýza dynamiky inflace v ÈR pomocí P*-modelu (P-Star-Model-Based Analyses of Inflation Dynamics in the CR)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 48(11), pages 685-697, November.
  9. Hallman, Jeffrey J & Porter, Richard D & Small, David H, 1991. "Is the Price Level Tied to the M2 Monetary Aggregate in the Long Run?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 841-58, September.
  10. Clemens J. M. Kool & John A. Tatom, 1994. "The P-star model in five small economies," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 11-29.
  11. Hans Groeneveld, 1995. "Monetary Spill-over Effects in the ERM: The Case of Austria, a Former Shadow Member," Working Papers 20, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  12. Vicente Pallardo & Vicente Esteve, 2000. "The P* model and its performance for the Spanish economy," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 449-459.
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