Inflation Transmission in the EMU: A Markov-Switching VECM Analysis
AbstractThis paper analyzes the transmission of inflation across the five largest economies in the European Monetary Union, i.e. France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands and Spain. We use monthly CPI inflation rates for the period 1970-2006. Given the long observation period and the continuing economic integration of Europe’s economies, we first try to investigate, if there were changes in inflation dynamics in these countries using univariate Markov-switching models. To assess the inflation transmission mechanism, we first establish a long-run relationship between the five countries using cointegration methods. As implied by the results of the univariate models, we allow for changes in the adjustment coefficients of the cointegrating relationships and the short-run dynamics. Using a Markov-switching vector error correction model we find evidence for multiple regime switches during the early 1970s till the mid 1980s. Exactly during this period we find evidence for Germany being weakly exogenous, which highlights the dominance of German monetary policy at this time. Since the mid-1980s we find evidence for a stable transmission mechanism both in the long- and the short-run characterized by a low degree of inflation persistence.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 1643.
Date of creation: Nov 2007
Date of revision:
Inflation transmission; monetary integration; MS-VECM; cointegration; euro area;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
- E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-01-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2008-01-05 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2008-01-05 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2008-01-05 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert B. Davies, 2002. "Hypothesis testing when a nuisance parameter is present only under the alternative: Linear model case," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 89(2), pages 484-489, June.
- Jian Yang & Hui Guo & Zijun Wang, 2004.
"International transmission of inflation among G-7 countries: a data-determined VAR analysis,"
2004-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Yang, Jian & Guo, Hui & Wang, Zijun, 2006. "International transmission of inflation among G-7 countries: A data-determined VAR analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(10), pages 2681-2700, October.
- Michael R. Darby & James Lothian, 1989. "The International Transmission of Inflation Afloat," NBER Chapters, in: Money, History, and International Finance: Essays in Honor of Anna J. Schwartz, pages 203-244 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Batini, Nicoletta, 2002.
"Euro area inflation persistence,"
Working Paper Series
0201, European Central Bank.
- Darby, Michael R., 1983. "The International Transmission of Inflation," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226136417, June.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Jude Yuen, 2002.
"Effects of U.S. Inflation on Hong Kong and Singapore,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
700, CESifo Group Munich.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Yuen, Jude, 2002. "Effects of U.S. Inflation on Hong Kong and Singapore," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 603-619, September.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Jude Yuen, 2001. "Effects of U.S. Inflation on Hong Kong and Singapore," Working Papers 032001, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Andrew Levin & Jeremy Piger, 2003.
"Is Inflation Persistence Intrinsic in Industrial Economies?,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 2003
298, Society for Computational Economics.
- Andrew T. Levin & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "Is inflation persistence intrinsic in industrial economies?," Working Papers 2002-023, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Levin, Andrew T. & Piger, Jeremy M., 2004. "Is inflation persistence intrinsic in industrial economies?," Working Paper Series 0334, European Central Bank.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
- Eun, Cheol S. & Jeong, Jin-Gil, 1999. "International price level linkages: Evidence from the post-Bretton Woods era," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 331-349, August.
- Michael R. Darby & James R. Lothian & Arthur E. Gandolfi & Anna J. Schwartz & Alan C. Stockman, 1983. "The International Transmission of Inflation," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number darb83-1, December.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
- Filippo Altissimo & Michael Ehrmann & Frank Smets, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area – a summary of the IPN evidence," Occasional Paper Series 46, European Central Bank.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
- Mihalicova, Xenia & Gazda, Vladimír & Kubak, Matúš & Grof, Marek, 2011. "P-Star Model under the Currency Board – The Case of Bulgaria 1997-2008," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 83-91, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.