IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ris/badest/0475.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Application of the P?Star Model for Measuring Inflationary Pressure in Bangladesh

Author

Listed:
  • Mujeri, Mustafa Kamal

    (Former Director General, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies)

  • Shahiduzzaman , Md

    (Research Economist and Joint Director, Policy Analysis Unit, Bangladesh Bank)

  • Islam, Md Ezazul

    (Research Economist and Joint Director, Policy Analysis Unit, Bangladesh Bank)

Abstract

The paper estimates the P* model for the Bangladesh economy and tests its forecasting ability through generating recursive forecasts. The model puts together long run determinants of price level based on the classical quantity theory of money and short term changes in current inflation. The empirical results show that the model performs relatively well and contains additional information regarding future rates of inflation. The price and output gap models fare consistently better than th e velocity gap model which brings out the importance of non-monetary factors in explaining inflation in Bangladesh. The out of sample forecasts show that the price gap model performs better followed by the output gap model and the velocity gap model. With financial sector liberalisation and reforms, it is likely that the relevance of P* types of model in explaining inflationary dynamics in the Bangladesh economy would be ramified.

Suggested Citation

  • Mujeri, Mustafa Kamal & Shahiduzzaman , Md & Islam, Md Ezazul, 2009. "Application of the P?Star Model for Measuring Inflationary Pressure in Bangladesh," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 32(1), pages 1-22, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:badest:0475
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://bids.org.bd/uploads/publication/BDS/32/32-1/01_Mujeri,%20Shahiduzzaman%20&%20Islam.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2000. "Does the P* Model Provide Any Rationale for Monetary Targeting?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 1(1), pages 69-81, February.
    2. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    3. Jamie Armour & Joseph Atta-Mensah & Walter Engert & Scott Hendry, 1996. "A Distant-Early-Warning Model of Inflation Based on M1 Disequilibria," Staff Working Papers 96-5, Bank of Canada.
    4. Darryl Holden & Roger Perman, 1994. "Unit Roots and Cointegration for the Economist," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: B. Bhaskara Rao (ed.), Cointegration, chapter 3, pages 47-112, Palgrave Macmillan.
    5. Yock Y. Chong & David F. Hendry, 1986. "Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(4), pages 671-690.
    6. Michael Bruno & William Easterly, 1996. "Inflation and growth: in search of a stable relationship," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 78(May), pages 139-146.
    7. Andong Zhu & Robert Pollin, 2005. "Inflation and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Non-linear Analysis," Working Papers wp109, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
    8. John A. Tatom, 1992. "The P-star model and Austrian prices," Working Papers 1992-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    9. Mussa, Michael, 1981. "Sticky Prices and Disequilibrium Adjustment in a Rational Model of the Inflationary Process," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 1020-1027, December.
    10. Hansen, Gerd, 1989. "Testing for money neutrality," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 89-112.
    11. Richard G. Anderson & Jeffrey J. Hallman, 1993. "Has the long-run velocity of M2 shifted? Evidence from the P* model," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 29(Q I), pages 14-26.
    12. Mr. Eduard J Bomhoff, 1990. "Stability of Velocity in the Group of Seven Countries: A Kalman Filter Approach," IMF Working Papers 1990/080, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Jeffrey J. Hallman & Richard D. Porter & David H. Small, 1989. "M2 per unit of potential GNP as an anchor for the price level," Staff Studies 157, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Funke, Michael & Hall, Stephen, 1994. "Is the Bundesbank Different from Other Central Banks: A Study Based on P," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 691-707.
    15. Pecchenino, R. A. & Rasche, Robert H., 1990. "P* type models: Evaluation and forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 421-440, October.
    16. Hall, Stephen G & Milne, Alistair, 1994. "The Relevance of P-Star Analysis to UK Monetary Policy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(424), pages 597-604, May.
    17. D. M. Nachane & R. Lakshmi, 2002. "Dynamics of inflation in India - a P-Star approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 101-110.
    18. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    19. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
    20. International Monetary Fund, 1990. "The Dynamics of Money Demand and Prices," IMF Working Papers 1990/075, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Joseph Atta-Mensah, 1996. "A Modified P*-Model of Inflation Based on M1," Staff Working Papers 96-15, Bank of Canada.
    22. Lawrence J. Christiano, 1989. "P*: not the inflation forecaster's holy grail," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 13(Fall), pages 3-18.
    23. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1992. "Monetary policy with uncertain estimates of potential output," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 16(Jan), pages 2-15.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joseph Atta-Mensah, 1996. "A Modified P*-Model of Inflation Based on M1," Staff Working Papers 96-15, Bank of Canada.
    2. Tödter, Karl-Heinz, 2002. "Monetary indicators and policy rules in the P-star model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,18, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Abdul Qayyum & Faiz Bilquees, 2005. "P-Star Model: A Leading Indicator of Inflation for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 44(2), pages 117-129.
    4. Claire G.Gilmore & Brian Lucey & Ginette M.McManus, 2005. "The Dynamics of Central European Equity Market Integration," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp069, IIIS.
    5. Neil R. Ericsson, 2021. "Dynamic Econometrics in Action: A Biography of David F. Hendry," International Finance Discussion Papers 1311, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Seamus Hogan & Marianne Johnson & Thérèse Laflèche, 2001. "Core Inflation," Technical Reports 89, Bank of Canada.
    7. Habibullah, Muzafar, 1999. "Using P-Star Model to Linking Money and Prices in A Financial Liberalised Developing Economy: The Case for Malaysia," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 33, pages 123-140.
    8. Adrian C. Darnell, 1994. "A Dictionary Of Econometrics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 118.
    9. Abhijit Sharma & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2003. "An Analysis of Exports and Growth in India: Some Empirical Evidence (1971-2001)," Working Papers 2003004, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2003.
    10. Johannes Groeneveld, 1998. "From the ERM with Love: Monetary Spillover Effects to Austria," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 25(3), pages 331-345, January.
    11. Glasure, Yong U., 2002. "Energy and national income in Korea: further evidence on the role of omitted variables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 355-365, July.
    12. Gao Lu Zou & Kwong Wing Chau, 2015. "Determinants and Sustainability of House Prices: The Case of Shanghai, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-25, April.
    13. Pathan, Shams & Skully, Michael & Wickramanayake, J., 2008. "Reforms in Thai bank governance: The aftermath of the Asian financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 345-362.
    14. Thorsten Beck, 2009. "The Econometrics of Finance and Growth," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Terence C. Mills & Kerry Patterson (ed.), Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, chapter 25, pages 1180-1209, Palgrave Macmillan.
    15. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Hassapis, Christis & Pittis, Nikitas, 1998. "Unit roots and long-run causality: investigating the relationship between output, money and interest rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 91-112, January.
    16. Mrtin Melecký, 2002. "Poptávka po penìzích v Èeské republice (M1)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 52(3), pages 76-89, March.
    17. De La Cruz Martinez, Justino, 1999. "Mexico's balance of payments and exchange rates: a cointegration analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 401-421.
    18. László Kónya & Jai Pal Singh, 2006. "Exports, Imports and Economic Growth in India," Working Papers 2006.06, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
    19. Martin Melecky, 2001. "Stabilita dlouhodobe poptavky po siroce definovanych penezich v otevrene ekonomice: pripad CR 1994-2000," Archive of Monetary Policy Division Working Papers 2001/38, Czech National Bank.
    20. Naser, Hanan, 2014. "On the cointegration and causality between Oil market, Nuclear Energy Consumption, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Developed Countries," MPRA Paper 65252, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Mar 2015.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Application; P Star Model; Measuring; Inflationary; Pressure; in; Bangladesh;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • A10 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:badest:0475. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Meftaur Rahman, Cheif Publication Officer, BIDS (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bidssbd.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.