P* Type Models: Evaluation and Forecasts
AbstractThis paper critically evaluates the Federal Reserve's p* model of inflation, and develops a model of national income determination implicit in the p* formulation. We use this model to forecast the future paths of key macroeconomic variables and investigate its behavior under a variety of deterministic monetary policy rules. These forecasts and policy simulations suggest a dynamic economic behavior inconsistent with stylized facts, and lead us to question the underlying structure of the p* formulation.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 3406.
Date of creation: Aug 1990
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Publication status: published as International Journal of Forecasting. Volume 6, pp. 421-440, 1990.
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