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A Modified P*-Model of Inflation Based on M1

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Author Info
Atta-Mensah, J

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Abstract

This paper examines the performance of M1 in an indicator model of inflation over time horizons as long as 16 quarters into the future. The central conclusion of the paper is that, in addtion to the output gap, the cumulative growth of M1 and the deviations of M1 from its long-run path provide "distant-early-warning" information about the future path of inflation.

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File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/en/res/wp/1996/wp96-15.pdf
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Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 96-15.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 1996
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:96-15

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Related research
Keywords: ECONOMIC MODELS; INFLATION;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Pecchenino, R. A. & Rasche, Robert H., 1990. "P* type models: Evaluation and forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 421-440, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Armour, J. & Atta-Mensah, J. & Engert, W. & Hendry, S., 1996. "A Distant-Early-Warning Model of Inflation Based on M1 Disequilibria," Working Papers 96-5, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  3. Becsi, Zsolt & Duca, John V., 1994. "Adding bond funds to M2 in the P-Star model of inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 143-147, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Hansen, Lars Peter & Hodrick, Robert J, 1980. "Forward Exchange Rates as Optimal Predictors of Future Spot Rates: An Econometric Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(5), pages 829-53, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. John A. Tatom, 1990. "The P-star approach to the link between money and prices," Working Papers 1990-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  6. Chong, Yock Y & Hendry, David F, 1986. "Econometric Evaluation of Linear Macro-Economic Models," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(4), pages 671-90, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Scott Hendry, 1995. "Long-Run Demand for M1," Macroeconomics 9511001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  8. Joseph Atta-Mensah, 1996. "The Empirical Performance of Alternative Monetary and Liquidity Aggregates," Macroeconomics 9601001, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  9. Kenneth N. Kuttner, 1990. "Inflation and the growth rate of money," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Jan, pages 2-11. [Downloadable!]
  10. Jeffrey J. Hallman & Richard D. Porter & David H. Small, 1989. "M2 per unit of potential GNP as an anchor for the price level," Staff Studies 157, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Hallman, Jeffrey J & Porter, Richard D & Small, David H, 1991. "Is the Price Level Tied to the M2 Monetary Aggregate in the Long Run?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 841-58, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. David E. Laidler, 1988. "Taking Money Seriously," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 21(4), pages 687-713, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Milbourne, Ross D, 1987. "Re-examining the Buffer-Stock Model of Money," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(388a), pages 130-42, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Hogan, Seamus & Marianne Johnson & Thérèse Laflèche, 2001. "Core Inflation," Technical Reports 89, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  2. Tödter, Karl-Heinz, 2002. "Monetary indicators and policy rules in the P-star model," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,18, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  3. Martha Misas & Enrique López & Luis Fernando Melo, . "La Inflación desde una Perspectiva Monetaria: Un Modelo P* para Colombia," Borradores de Economia 133, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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