A Modified P*-Model of Inflation Based on M1
AbstractThis paper examines the performance of M1 in an indicator model of inflation over time horizons as long as 16 quarters into the future. The central conclusion of the paper is that, in addtion to the output gap, the cumulative growth of M1 and the deviations of M1 from its long-run path provide "distant-early-warning" information about the future path of inflation.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 96-15.
Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 1996
Date of revision:
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ECONOMIC MODELS; INFLATION;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
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