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Long-Run Demand for M1

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Author Info
Scott Hendry

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Abstract

The goal of this paper is to investigate and estimate long-run relationships among M1, prices, output and interest rates, with a view to determining if there is a stable relationship that can be interpreted as long-run money demand. The paper uses a maximum-likelihood multiple- equation cointegration technique, developed by Johansen, to fit a system of equations to the data. One finding is that long-run, but not short-run, unitary price elasticity is easily accepted, while the income elasticity is close to one-half. The coefficients on the deviation of money from its long-run equilibrium in the vector error-correction model imply that when M1 is above its long-run demand, money will decrease and prices increase to restore long-run equilibrium. The effects of the deviation on output and interest rates are insignificant, pointing to the weak exogeneity of these variables. The implication of the results is that all the adjustment to return the economy to monetary equilibrium comes from fluctuations in money and prices. However, this does not preclude the possibility that changes in the stock of money may have short-run real effects. Indeed, the results suggest that changes in M1 lead short-term changes in output.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 9511001.

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Length: 70 pages
Date of creation: 27 Nov 1995
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:9511001

Note: 70 printed pages, compressed PostScript file. Other recent Bank of Canada working papers are listed on the last page of this report.
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E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Francis Breedon & Paul Fisher, . "M0: Causes and Consequences," Bank of England working papers 20, Bank of England.
    Other versions:
  2. Hendry, David F. & Ericsson, Neil R., 1991. "Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 833-881, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Gregory D. Hess & Christopher S. Jones & Richard D. Porter, 1994. "The predictive failure of the Baba, Hendry and Starr model of the demand for M1 in the United States," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 94-34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Other versions:
  5. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
  6. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-48, August.
    Other versions:
  7. Mosconi, Rocco & Giannini, Carlo, 1992. "Non-causality in Cointegrated Systems: Representation Estimation and Testing," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 399-417, August.
  8. repec:fip:fedreq:y:1992:i:may:p:9-23:n:v.78no.6 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Lucas, R.F. & Haug, A.A., 1992. "Long-Run Money Demand in Canada: In Search of Stability," Papers 92-4, Saskatchewan - Department of Economics.
  10. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Alain Paquet, 1994. "A Guide to Applied Modern Macroeconometrics," Documents techniques CREFE / CREFE Technical Papers 1, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  12. Paquet, A., 1994. "A Guide to Applied Modern Macroeconometrics," Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada 1994-5, Department of Finance Canada.
  13. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Bardsen, Gunnar, 1992. "Dynamic modeling of the demand for narrow money in Norway," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 363-393, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jim Day & Ron Lange, 1997. "The Structure of Interest Rates in Canada: Information Content about Medium-Term Inflation," Working Papers 97-10, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  2. Laidler, David, 1999. "The Quantity of Money and Monetary Policy," Working Papers 99-5, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  3. Denise Côté & John Kuszczak & Jean-Paul Lam & Ying Liu & Pierre St-Amant, 2003. "A Comparison of Twelve Macroeconomic Models of the Canadian Economy," Technical Reports 94, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Jeannine Bailliu & Daniel Garcés & Mark Kruger & Miguel Messmacher, 2003. "Explaining and Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets: The Case of Mexico," Working Papers 03-17, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  5. Godbout, M.J. & Van Norden, S., 1996. "Unit-Root Test and Excess Returns," Working Papers 96-10, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  6. Paul D. Gilbert & Lise Pichette, 2003. "Dynamic Factor Analysis for Measuring Money," Working Papers 03-21, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  7. Marie-Josée Godbout & Simon van Norden, 1997. "Reconsidering Cointegration in International Finance: Three Case Studies of Size Distortion in Finite Samples," Working Papers 97-1, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  8. Armour, J. & Atta-Mensah, J. & Engert, W. & Hendry, S., 1996. "A Distant-Early-Warning Model of Inflation Based on M1 Disequilibria," Working Papers 96-5, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  9. St-Amant, P. & van Norden, S., 1997. "Measurement of the Output Gap: A Discussion of Recent Research at the Bank of Canada," Technical Reports 79, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  10. Domac, Ilker, 2004. "Explaining and forecasting inflation in Tukey," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3287, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  11. Ilker Domac, 2003. "Explaining and Forecasting Inflation in Turkey," Working Papers 0306, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey. [Downloadable!]
  12. Steven Morling, 2002. "Output Adjustment in Developing Countries: a Structural Var Approach," Discussion Papers Series 307, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia. [Downloadable!]
  13. Martha Misas & Enrique López & Luis Fernando Melo, . "La Inflación desde una Perspectiva Monetaria: Un Modelo P* para Colombia," Borradores de Economia 133, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Amir Kia, 2006. "Economic policies and demand for money: evidence from Canada," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 38(12), pages 1389-1407, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Atta-Mensah, J, 1996. "A Modified P*-Model of Inflation Based on M1," Working Papers 96-15, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  16. Kasumovick, M., 1996. "Interpreting Money-Spply and Interest-Rate Sgocks as Monetary-Policy Shocks," Working Papers 96-8, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  17. Engert, Walter & Hendry, Scott, 1998. "Forecasting Inflation with the M1-VECM: Part Two," Working Papers 98-6, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  18. Engert, Walter & Selody, Jack, 1998. "Uncertainty and Multiple Paradigms of the Transmission Mechanism," Working Papers 98-7, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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