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A Distant-Early-Warning Model of Inflation Based on M1 Disequilibria

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Author Info

  • Armour, J.
  • Atta-Mensah, J.
  • Engert, W.
  • Hendry, S.

Abstract

A vector error-correction Model (VECM) that Forecasts inflation between the current quarter and eight quarters ahead is found to privide significant leading information about inflation. The model focusses on th effects of deviations of M1 from its long-run demand but also includes, among other things, the influence of the exchange rate, a simple measure of the output gap and past prices.

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File URL: http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/wp96-5.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 96-5.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: 1996
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:96-5

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Related research

Keywords: INFLATION; ECONOMIC MODELS; FORECASTS;

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References

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  1. Perron,P., 1988. "Testing For A Random Walk: A Simulation Experiment Of Power When The Simpling Interval Is Varied," Papers 336, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  2. Scott Hendry, 1995. "Long-Run Demand for M1," Macroeconomics 9511001, EconWPA.
  3. Hendry, David F, 1986. "Econometric Modelling with Cointegrated Variables: An Overview," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 201-12, August.
  4. David E. Laidler, 1988. "Taking Money Seriously," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 21(4), pages 687-713, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ilker Domac, 2003. "Explaining and Forecasting Inflation in Turkey," Working Papers 0306, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  2. David Longworth & Brian O’Reilly, 2000. "The Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism and Policy Rules in Canada," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 72, Central Bank of Chile.
  3. Bohl , Martin T & Mayes , David G & Siklos, Pierre L, 2009. "The quality of monetary policy and inflation performance: globalization and its aftermath," Research Discussion Papers 31/2009, Bank of Finland.
  4. Jeannine Bailliu & Daniel Garcés & Mark Kruger & Miguel Messmacher, 2003. "Explaining and Forecasting Inflation in Emerging Markets: The Case of Mexico," Working Papers 03-17, Bank of Canada.
  5. Hogan, Seamus & Marianne Johnson & Thérèse Laflèche, 2001. "Core Inflation," Technical Reports 89, Bank of Canada.
  6. Atta-Mensah, J, 1996. "A Modified P*-Model of Inflation Based on M1," Working Papers 96-15, Bank of Canada.
  7. Charles Freedman, 1996. "What operating procedures should be adopted to maintain price stability? practical issues," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 241-285.
  8. Engert, Walter & Hendry, Scott, 1998. "Forecasting Inflation with the M1-VECM: Part Two," Working Papers 98-6, Bank of Canada.

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