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Modelos Estructurales de Inflación en Colombia: Estimación a Través de Mínimos Cuadrados Flexibles

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  • Luis Fernando Melo

    ()

  • Martha Misas A.

    ()

Abstract

En este documento se presenta evidencia de cambios estructurales, a finales de la década de los noventa, en las relaciones económicas planteadas en los modelos uniecuacionales de inflación en Colombia.Hecho que afecta la inferencia y los pronósticos obtenidos a través de uso de técnicas clásicas de estimación. La metodología de estimación de mínimos cuadrados flexibles (Kabala y Tesfatsion 1989, 1990), propuesta en esta investigación, permite incorporar tales cambios superando los problemas asociados a las metodologías tradicionales. Los pronósticos obtenidos a partir de esta metodología son superiores, en sentido de menor error mínimo cuadrático, a aquellos obtenidos a través de mínimos cuadrados ordinarios.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 283.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:283

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Luis Fernando Melo & Rubén Albeiro Loaiza Maya, 2012. "Bayesian Forecast Combination for Inflation Using Rolling Windows: An Emerging Country Case," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA 009511, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  2. Carlos A. Arango A. & Martha Misas A. & Juan Nicolás Hernández, . "La Demanda de Especies Monetarias en Colombia: Estructura y Pronóstico," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica de Colombia 309, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  3. José Luis Torres, 2006. "Modelos para la Inflación Básica de Bienes Transables y No Transables en Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA 003246, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  4. Gachet, Ivan & Maldonado, Diego & Oliva, Nicolas & Ramirez, Jose, 2011. "Hechos Estilizados de la Economía Ecuatoriana: El Ciclo Económico 1965-2008
    [Stylized Facts of the Ecuadorian Economy: The Economic Chicle 1965-2008]
    ," MPRA Paper 30280, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Oscar Reinaldo Becerra Camargo, 2005. "Medidas De Riesgo, Caracteristicas Y Técnicas De Medición: Una Aplicación Del Var Y El Es A La Tasa Interbancaria De Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA 003198, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  6. Eliana González Molano & Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Anderson Grajales Olarte, . "Pronósticos directos de la inflación colombiana," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica de Colombia 458, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  7. Héctor Mauricio Nuñez Amortegui, 2005. "Una evaluación de los pronósticos de inflación en Colombia bajo el esquema de inflación objetivo," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
  8. Luis Fernando Melo Velandia & Héctor M. Núñez Amortegui, 2004. "Combinación de pronósticos de la inflación en presencia de cambios estructurales," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA 002153, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  9. Gomez, Miguel I. & Gonzalez, Eliana & Melo, Luis F. & Torres, Jose L., 2006. "Forecasting Food Price Inflation, Challenges for Central Banks in Developing Countries using an Inflation Targeting Framework: the Case of Colombia," 2006 Annual meeting, July 23-26, Long Beach, CA, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association) 21181, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).

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