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A GARCH Model of Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty with Simultaneous Feedback

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  • Stilianos Fountas
  • Menelaos Karanasos

    (Department of Economics, National University of Ireland, Galway)

  • Marika Karanassou

    (Department of Economics, National University of Ireland, Galway)

Abstract

We examine the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty using a GARCH model that allows for simultaneous feedback between the conditional mean and variance of inflation. We also derive a number of theoretical econometric results and illustrate the relevance of these results with an empirical example of the US monthly inflation process. Our results show that there is strong evidence in favour of a positive bi-directional relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in agreement with the predictions of economic theory.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0047.

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Date of creation: 2000
Date of revision: 2000
Handle: RePEc:nig:wpaper:0047

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References

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  1. Fraser, Patricia, 1996. "UK Excess Share Returns: Firm Size and Volatility," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 43(1), pages 71-84, February.
  2. Black, Angela & Fraser, Patricia, 1995. "U.K. Stock Returns: Predictability and Business Conditions," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 63(0), pages 85-102, Suppl..
  3. Laurence Ball & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1990. "Inflation and Uncertainty at Long and Short Horizons," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(1), pages 215-254.
  4. Engle, Robert F, 1983. "Estimates of the Variance of U.S. Inflation Based upon the ARCH Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 15(3), pages 286-301, August.
  5. Hurn, A S & McDonald, A D & Moody, T, 1995. "In Search of Time-Varying Term Premia in the London Interbank Market," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 42(2), pages 152-64, May.
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  9. Davis, George K & Kanago, Bryce E, 2000. "The Level and Uncertainty of Inflation: Results from OECD Forecasts," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(1), pages 58-72, January.
  10. Grier, Kevin B. & Perry, Mark J., 1998. "On inflation and inflation uncertainty in the G7 countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 671-689, August.
  11. Menelaos Karanasos, . "Prediction in ARMA models with GARCH in Mean Effects," Discussion Papers 99/11, Department of Economics, University of York.
  12. Marine Carrasco & Xiaohong Chen, 1999. "b - Mixing and Moment Properties of Various GARCH, Stochastic Volatility and ACD Models," Working Papers 99-41, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
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  15. Karanasos, Menelaos, 1999. "The second moment and the autocovariance function of the squared errors of the GARCH model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 63-76, May.
  16. Hentschel, Ludger & Campbell, John, 1992. "No News is Good News: An Asymmetric Model of Changing Volatility in Stock Returns," Scholarly Articles 3220232, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  17. Ball, Laurence, 1992. "Why does high inflation raise inflation uncertainty?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 371-388, June.
  18. Evans, Martin, 1991. "Discovering the Link between Inflation Rates and Inflation Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 169-84, May.
  19. Hansson, Bjorn & Hordahl, Peter, 1997. " Changing Risk Premia: Evidence from a Small Open Economy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 99(2), pages 335-50, June.
  20. Giraitis, Liudas & Kokoszka, Piotr & Leipus, Remigijus, 2000. "Stationary Arch Models: Dependence Structure And Central Limit Theorem," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(01), pages 3-22, February.
  21. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
  22. Caporale, Tony & McKiernan, Barbara, 1996. "The Relationship between Output Variability and Growth: Evidence from Post War UK Data," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 43(2), pages 229-36, May.
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  25. Hall, S G, 1991. "An Application of the Stochastic GARCH-in-Mean Model to Risk Premia in the London Metal Exchange," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 59(0), pages 57-71, Supplemen.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. S. Fountas & A. Ioannidis & M. Karanasos, 2004. "Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty and a Common European Monetary Policy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(2), pages 221-242, 03.
  2. Menelaos Karanasos & J. Kim, . "Alternative GARCH in Mean Models: An Application to the Korean Stock Market," Discussion Papers 00/25, Department of Economics, University of York.
  3. M. Karanasos & J. Kim, 2003. "Moments of the ARMA--EGARCH model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 146-166, 06.
  4. Matteo Barigozzi & Marco Capasso, 2007. "A Multivariate Perspective for Modeling and Forecasting Inflation's Conditional Mean and Variance," LEM Papers Series 2007/21, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  5. A. Kontonikas, 2002. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the United Kingdom: Evidence from GARCH modelling," Public Policy Discussion Papers 02-28, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
  6. Fountas, Stilianos, 2001. "The relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in the UK: 1885-1998," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 77-83, December.
  7. Menelaos Karanasos, . "The Covariance Structure of Mixed ARMA Models," Discussion Papers 00/10, Department of Economics, University of York.
  8. Syed Kumail Abbas Naqvi & Bushra Naqvi, 2010. "Asymmetric Behavior of Inflation Uncertainty and Friedman-Ball Hypothesis: Evidence from Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 15(2), pages 1-33, Jul-Dec.
  9. Carmen Broto & Esther Ruiz, 2008. "Testing for conditional heteroscedasticity in the components of inflation," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0812, Banco de Espa�a.
  10. Menelaos Karanasos, . "Some Exact Formulae for the Constant Correlation and Diagonal M - Garch Models," Discussion Papers 00/14, Department of Economics, University of York.
  11. Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Naqvi, Bushra, 2008. "Asymmetric Behavior of Inflation Uncertainty and Friedman-Ball Hypothesis: Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 19488, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Rizvi, Syed Kumail Abbas & Naqvi, Bushra, 2009. "Inflation Volatility: An Asian Perspective," MPRA Paper 19489, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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