U.K. Stock Returns: Predictability and Business Conditions
AbstractThis paper examines the hypothesis that predictable variation in excess returns can be explained by future business conditions. Using GARCH-M methodology and data on U.K. share returns over the period 1965-92, the authors find that excess returns are able to capture expectations regarding the future state of the economy. Futher, 'news' on future business conditions in the economy would appear to be related to the observed persistence in the conditional variance of excess returns. Copyright 1995 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd and The Victoria University of Manchester
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by University of Manchester in its journal The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies.
Volume (Year): 63 (1995)
Issue (Month): 0 (Suppl.)
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Manchester M13 9PL
Phone: (0)161 275 4868
Fax: (0)161 275 4812
Web page: http://www.socialsciences.manchester.ac.uk/disciplines/economics/
More information through EDIRC
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem, 2005. "Market efficiency today," CFS Working Paper Series 2006/01, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Yao, Juan & Alles, Lakshman, 2006. "Industry return predictability, timing and profitability," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 122-141, April.
- Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos & Marika Karanassou, .
"A GARCH Model of Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty with Simultaneous Feedback,"
00/24, Department of Economics, University of York.
- Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos & Marika Karanassou, 2000. "A GARCH Model of Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty with Simultaneous Feedback," Working Papers 414, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos & Marika Karanassou, 2000. "A GARCH Model of Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty with Simultaneous Feedback," Working Papers 0047, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 2000.
- Carolina Fugazza & Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2007.
"Investing for the Long-run in European Real Estate,"
The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics,
Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 35-80, January.
- Carolina Fugazza & Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2006. "Investing for the long-run in European real estate," Working Papers 2006-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Pesaran, M.H., 2010.
"Predictability of Asset Returns and the Efficient Market Hypothesis,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
1033, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- M. Hashem Pesaran, 2010. "Predictability of Asset Returns and the Efficient Market Hypothesis," CESifo Working Paper Series 3116, CESifo Group Munich.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2010. "Predictability of Asset Returns and the Efficient Market Hypothesis," IZA Discussion Papers 5037, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Massimo Guidolin & Stuart Hyde & David McMillan & Sadayuki Ono, 2010. "Does the macroeconomy predict U.K. asset returns in a nonlinear fashion? comprehensive out-of-sample evidence," Working Papers 2010-039, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Nektarios Aslanidis, 2002. "Smooth Transition Regression Models in UK Stock Returns," Working Papers 0201, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
- Aityan, Sergey K. & Ivanov-Schitz, Alexey K. & Izotov, Sergey S., 2010. "Time-shift asymmetric correlation analysis of global stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 590-605, December.
- Neil Kellard & John Nankervis & Fotis Papadimitriou, 2007. "Predicting the UK Equity Premium with Dividend Ratios: An Out-Of-Sample Recursive Residuals Graphical Approach," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 129, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Menelaos Karanasos & J. Kim, . "Alternative GARCH in Mean Models: An Application to the Korean Stock Market," Discussion Papers 00/25, Department of Economics, University of York.
- Joelle Miffre, 2000. "The Abnormal Performance of Bond Returns," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2000-03, Henley Business School, Reading University.
- Patricia Fraser & Andrew McKaig, 2001. "Basis variation and a common source of risk: evidence from UK futures markets," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 39-62.
- Angelos Kanas, 2009. "The relation between the equity risk premium and the bond maturity premium in the UK: 1900–2006," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 111-127, April.
- Granger, C.W.J. & Pesaran, M. H., 1999. "Economic and Statistical Measures of Forecast Accuracy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9910, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- David Lovatt & Ashok Parikh, 2000. "Stock returns and economic activity: the UK case," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 280-297.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.