Smooth Transition Regression Models in UK Stock Returns

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Smooth Transition Regression Models in UK Stock Returns

Author Info

Nektarios Aslanidis (Department of Economics, University of Crete, Greece)

Abstract

This paper models UK stock market returns in a smooth transition regression (STR) framework. A variety of financial and macroeconomic series are employed that are assumed to influence UK stock returns, namely GDP, interest rates, inflation, money supply and US stock prices. STR models are estimated where the linearity hypothesis is strongly rejected for at least one transition variable. These non-linear models describe the in-sample movements of the stock returns series better than the corresponding linear model. Moreover, the US stock market appears to play an important role in determining the UK stock market returns regime.

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Paper provided by University of Crete, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 0201.

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Length: 27 pages
Date of creation: 00 Sep 2002
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Handle: RePEc:crt:wpaper:0201

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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Full references

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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Giorgio Valente & Lucio Sarno, 2005. "Modelling and forecasting stock returns: exploiting the futures market, regime shifts and international spillovers," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 345-376. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Sarno, Lucio & Giorgio Valente, 2002. "Modelling and Forecasting Stock Returns: Exploiting the Futures Market, Regime Shifts and International Spillovers," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 160, Royal Economic Society. [Downloadable!]
- Giorgio Valente & Lucio Sarno, 2004. "Modeling and Forecasting Stock Returns: Exploiting the Futures Market, Regime Shifts and International Spillovers," Working Papers wp04-11, Warwick Business School, Financial Econometrics Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
Neil Kellard & John Nankervis & Fotis Papadimitriou, 2007. "Predicting the UK Equity Premium with Dividend Ratios: An Out-Of-Sample Recursive Residuals Graphical Approach," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 129, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]

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