Modelling Stock Exchange Index Returns in Different GDP Growth Regimes
AbstractDuring different GDP growth regimes, the dynamics of global financial markets impacts the Slovenian stock exchange with varying intensity. We propose a smooth transition regression model to explain Slovene stock exchange index returns employing financial and macroeconomic variables. According to our model, the reaction of the stock market to several of the explanatory variables depends on the magnitude of GDP growth. The weaker relationship between Slovene stock exchange index returns and S&P 500 returns in the period of lower or negative GDP growth could be explained by less developed financial market in Slovenia and therefore not closely linked interchange of securities.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by University of Economics, Prague in its journal Prague Economic Papers.
Volume (Year): 2011 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Postal: Editorial office Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, nám. W. Churchilla 4, 130 67 Praha 3, Czech Republic
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
- F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
- F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ian Babetskii & Luboš Komárek & Zlatuše Komárková, 2007.
"Financial Integration of Stock Markets among New EU Member States and the Euro Area,"
Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver),
Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(7-8), pages 341-362, September.
- Babecký, Jan & Komárek, Luboš & Komárková, Zlatuše, 2008. "Financial Integration of Stock Markets among New EU Member States and the Euro Area," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 849, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Ian Babetskii & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova, 2007. "Financial Integration of Stock Markets among New EU Member States and the Euro Area," Working Papers 2007/7, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
- Mejra Festiæ & Sebastijan Repina, 2009. "Financial Stability in the Baltics," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(6), pages 554-576, December.
- Gilmore, Claire G. & Lucey, Brian M. & McManus, Ginette M., 2008. "The dynamics of Central European equity market comovements," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 605-622, August.
- Bernanke, Ben S, 1983.
"Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-76, June.
- Ben S. Bernanke, 1983. "Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression," NBER Working Papers 1054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Charlotte Christiansen & Angelo Ranaldo, 2008.
"Extreme Coexceedances in New EU Member States' Stock Markets,"
2008-10, Swiss National Bank.
- Christiansen, Charlotte & Ranaldo, Angelo, 2009. "Extreme coexceedances in new EU member states' stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1048-1057, June.
- Charlotte Christiansen & Angelo Ranaldo, 2007. "Extreme Coexceedances in New EU Member States’ Stock Markets," CREATES Research Papers 2007-34, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- Frank Westermann, 2004. "Does the Euro affect the dynamic interactions of stock markets in Europe? Evidence from France, Germany and Italy," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 139-148.
- Garrett, Ian & Spyrou, Spyros, 1999. "Common Stochastic Trends in Emerging Equity Markets," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(6), pages 649-60, December.
- Dvorak, Tomas & Podpiera, Richard, 2005.
"European Union enlargement and equity markets in accession countries,"
Working Paper Series
0552, European Central Bank.
- Dvorak, Tomas & Podpiera, Richard, 2006. "European Union enlargement and equity markets in accession countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 129-146, June.
- Richard Podpiera & TomÃ¡s DvorÃ¡k, 2005. "European Union Enlargement and Equity Markets in Accession Countries," IMF Working Papers 05/182, International Monetary Fund.
- Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June.
- William N. Goetzmann & Lingfeng Li & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2001.
"Long-Term Global Market Correlations,"
NBER Working Papers
8612, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- William Goetzmann & Lingfeng Li & K. Rouwenhorst, 2001. "Long-Term Global Market Correlations," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm237, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jan 2008.
- William N.Goetzmann & Lingfeng Li & K.Geert Rouwenhorst, 2003. "Long-Term Global Market Correlations," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 98, Netherlands Central Bank.
- R. Gaston Gelos & Ratna Sahay, 2001.
"Financial market spillovers in transition economies,"
The Economics of Transition,
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 9(1), pages 53-86, March.
- Ratna Sahay & Gaston Gelos, 2000. "Financial Market Spillovers in Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 00/71, International Monetary Fund.
- Manolis Syllignakis & Georgios Kouretas, 2006. "Long And Short-Run Linkages In Cee Stock Markets: Implications For Portfolio Diversification And Stock Market Integration," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp832, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Eitrheim, Øyvind & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1995.
"Testing the Adequacy of Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models,"
Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
56, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Eitrheim, Oyvind & Terasvirta, Timo, 1996. "Testing the adequacy of smooth transition autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 59-75, September.
- Greg Adams & Grant McQueen & Robert Wood, 2004. "The Effects of Inflation News on High Frequency Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(3), pages 547-574, July.
- Katharina Pistor, 2000. "Patterns of legal change: shareholder and creditor rights in transition economies," Working Papers 49, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Office of the Chief Economist.
- Kee-Hong Bae & G. Andrew Karolyi & Rene M. Stulz, 2000.
"A New Approach to Measuring Financial Contagion,"
NBER Working Papers
7913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Harrison, Barry & Moore, Winston, 2009. "Stock Market Como Vement In The European Union And Transition Countries," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 13(3), pages 124-151.
- Kim, Suk Joong & Moshirian, Fariborz & Wu, Eliza, 2005. "Dynamic stock market integration driven by the European Monetary Union: An empirical analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2475-2502, October.
- Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
- Jorge Guillen, 2010. "Financial Distress and Access to Capital in Emerging Markets," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2010(1), pages 5-20.
- Johan Knif & James Kolari & Seppo Pynnönen, 2008. "Stock Market Reaction To Good And Bad Inflation News," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 141-166.
- Horobet, Alexandra & Ilie, Livia, 2007. "On the dynamic link between stock prices and exchange rates: evidence from Romania," MPRA Paper 6429, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Brandmeier, Michael, 2006. "Reasons for real appreciation in Central Europe," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 55, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
- Stanislav Anatolyev, 2006.
"Nonparametric retrospection and monitoring of predictability of financial returns,"
w0071, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
- Anatolyev, Stanislav, 2009. "Nonparametric Retrospection and Monitoring of Predictability of Financial Returns," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(2), pages 149-160.
- Cappiello, Lorenzo & Gérard, Bruno & Kadareja, Arjan & Manganelli, Simone, 2006. "Financial integration of new EU Member States," Working Paper Series 0683, European Central Bank.
- Aslanidis, Nektarios & Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2002. "Smooth Transition Regression Models in UK Stock Returns," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 11, Royal Economic Society.
- Cumhur Erdem & Cem Kaan Arslan & Meziyet Sema Erdem, 2005. "Effects of macroeconomic variables on Istanbul stock exchange indexes," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(14), pages 987-994.
- Markus Baltzer & Lorenzo Cappiello & Roberto A. De Santis & Simone Manganelli, 2008. "Measuring financial integration in new EU member states," Occasional Paper Series 81, European Central Bank.
- Nektarios Aslanidis, 2002. "Smooth Transition Regression Models in UK Stock Returns," Working Papers 0201, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
- Cumperayot, Phornchanok & Keijzer, Tjeert & Kouwenberg, Roy, 2006. "Linkages between extreme stock market and currency returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 528-550, April.
- Kul B. Luintel & Krishna Paudyal, 2006. "Are Common Stocks A Hedge Against Inflation?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 29(1), pages 1-19.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Vaclav Subrta).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.