Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Modelling Stock Exchange Index Returns in Different GDP Growth Regimes

Contents:

Author Info

  • Alenka Kavkler
  • Mejra Festić
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    During different GDP growth regimes, the dynamics of global financial markets impacts the Slovenian stock exchange with varying intensity. We propose a smooth transition regression model to explain Slovene stock exchange index returns employing financial and macroeconomic variables. According to our model, the reaction of the stock market to several of the explanatory variables depends on the magnitude of GDP growth. The weaker relationship between Slovene stock exchange index returns and S&P 500 returns in the period of lower or negative GDP growth could be explained by less developed financial market in Slovenia and therefore not closely linked interchange of securities.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.vse.cz/polek/download.php?jnl=pep&pdf=384.pdf
    Download Restriction: Restriction: free of charge

    File URL: http://www.vse.cz/pep/abstrakt.php?IDcl=384
    Download Restriction: Restriction: free of charge

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by University of Economics, Prague in its journal Prague Economic Papers.

    Volume (Year): 2011 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 1 ()
    Pages: 3-22

    as in new window
    Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2011:y:2011:i:1:id:384:p:3-22

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: nam. W. Churchilla 4, 130 67 Praha 3
    Phone: (02) 24 09 51 11
    Fax: (02) 24 22 06 57
    Web page: http://www.vse.cz/
    More information through EDIRC

    Order Information:
    Postal: Editorial office Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, nám. W. Churchilla 4, 130 67 Praha 3, Czech Republic
    Email:
    Web: http://www.vse.cz/pep/

    Related research

    Keywords: stock returns; smooth transition regression; GDP growth regimes;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Ian Babetskii & Luboš Komárek & Zlatuše Komárková, 2007. "Financial Integration of Stock Markets among New EU Member States and the Euro Area," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(7-8), pages 341-362, September.
    2. Mejra Festiæ & Sebastijan Repina, 2009. "Financial Stability in the Baltics," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 59(6), pages 554-576, December.
    3. Gilmore, Claire G. & Lucey, Brian M. & McManus, Ginette M., 2008. "The dynamics of Central European equity market comovements," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 605-622, August.
    4. Bernanke, Ben S, 1983. "Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in Propagation of the Great Depression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(3), pages 257-76, June.
    5. Charlotte Christiansen & Angelo Ranaldo, 2008. "Extreme Coexceedances in New EU Member States' Stock Markets," Working Papers 2008-10, Swiss National Bank.
    6. Frank Westermann, 2004. "Does the Euro affect the dynamic interactions of stock markets in Europe? Evidence from France, Germany and Italy," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 139-148.
    7. Garrett, Ian & Spyrou, Spyros, 1999. "Common Stochastic Trends in Emerging Equity Markets," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(6), pages 649-60, December.
    8. Dvorak, Tomas & Podpiera, Richard, 2005. "European Union enlargement and equity markets in accession countries," Working Paper Series 0552, European Central Bank.
    9. Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June.
    10. William N. Goetzmann & Lingfeng Li & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2001. "Long-Term Global Market Correlations," NBER Working Papers 8612, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. R. Gaston Gelos & Ratna Sahay, 2001. "Financial market spillovers in transition economies," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 9(1), pages 53-86, March.
    12. Manolis Syllignakis & Georgios Kouretas, 2006. "Long And Short-Run Linkages In Cee Stock Markets: Implications For Portfolio Diversification And Stock Market Integration," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp832, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    13. Eitrheim, Øyvind & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1995. "Testing the Adequacy of Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 56, Stockholm School of Economics.
    14. Greg Adams & Grant McQueen & Robert Wood, 2004. "The Effects of Inflation News on High Frequency Stock Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(3), pages 547-574, July.
    15. Katharina Pistor, 2000. "Patterns of legal change: shareholder and creditor rights in transition economies," Working Papers 49, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Office of the Chief Economist.
    16. Kee-Hong Bae & G. Andrew Karolyi & Rene M. Stulz, 2000. "A New Approach to Measuring Financial Contagion," NBER Working Papers 7913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Harrison, Barry & Moore, Winston, 2009. "Stock Market Como Vement In The European Union And Transition Countries," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 13(3), pages 124-151.
    18. Kim, Suk Joong & Moshirian, Fariborz & Wu, Eliza, 2005. "Dynamic stock market integration driven by the European Monetary Union: An empirical analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2475-2502, October.
    19. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Jorge Guillen, 2010. "Financial Distress and Access to Capital in Emerging Markets," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2010(1), pages 5-20.
    21. Johan Knif & James Kolari & Seppo Pynnönen, 2008. "Stock Market Reaction To Good And Bad Inflation News," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 31(2), pages 141-166.
    22. Horobet, Alexandra & Ilie, Livia, 2007. "On the dynamic link between stock prices and exchange rates: evidence from Romania," MPRA Paper 6429, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Brandmeier, Michael, 2006. "Reasons for real appreciation in Central Europe," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 55, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    24. Stanislav Anatolyev, 2006. "Nonparametric retrospection and monitoring of predictability of financial returns," Working Papers w0071, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    25. Cappiello, Lorenzo & Gérard, Bruno & Kadareja, Arjan & Manganelli, Simone, 2006. "Financial integration of new EU Member States," Working Paper Series 0683, European Central Bank.
    26. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2002. "Smooth Transition Regression Models in UK Stock Returns," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 11, Royal Economic Society.
    27. Cumhur Erdem & Cem Kaan Arslan & Meziyet Sema Erdem, 2005. "Effects of macroeconomic variables on Istanbul stock exchange indexes," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(14), pages 987-994.
    28. Markus Baltzer & Lorenzo Cappiello & Roberto A. De Santis & Simone Manganelli, 2008. "Measuring financial integration in new EU member states," Occasional Paper Series 81, European Central Bank.
    29. Nektarios Aslanidis, 2002. "Smooth Transition Regression Models in UK Stock Returns," Working Papers 0201, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    30. Cumperayot, Phornchanok & Keijzer, Tjeert & Kouwenberg, Roy, 2006. "Linkages between extreme stock market and currency returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 528-550, April.
    31. Kul B. Luintel & Krishna Paudyal, 2006. "Are Common Stocks A Hedge Against Inflation?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association & Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 29(1), pages 1-19.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2011:y:2011:i:1:id:384:p:3-22. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Vaclav Subrta).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.