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Does the Euro affect the dynamic interactions of stock markets in Europe? Evidence from France, Germany and Italy

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Frank Westermann

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Abstract

The dynamic links between stock market indices are analyzed in a GARCH-M framework, using daily data from France, Germany, Italy and the USA. It is shown that indices in the periods before and after the introduction of the Euro as a single currency display a very distinct behaviour. Consistent with the literature, in the earlier period price changes are found to have an impact the next day on other markets. In the latter period this type of co-movement disappeared within Europe. Feedback trading has been shown to induce (negative) autocorrelation in national stock markets. In this paper an international version of the feedback trading model is used to illustrate that the lead-lag relationships across countries and the strength of these links depend on the currency regime.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal The European Journal of Finance.

Volume (Year): 10 (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 139-148
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Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:10:y:2004:i:2:p:139-148

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Keywords: Euro Feedback Trading Model Garch Model Stock Market Indices

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  1. Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil B, 1992. "Feedback Traders and Stock Return Autocorrelations: Evidence from a Century of Daily Data," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(411), pages 415-25, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1999. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Long-Term Stock Market Comovements among Major EMS Countries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 9(1), pages 73-85, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "Finite-Sample Sizes of Johansen's Likelihood Ration Tests for Conintegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 55(3), pages 313-28, August.
  4. Grubel, Herbert G & Fadner, Kenneth, 1971. "The Interdependence of International Equity Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 26(1), pages 89-94, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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