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Nonparametric retrospection and monitoring of predictability of financial returns

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Author Info
Stanislav Anatolyev () (NES)

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Abstract

We develop and evaluate sequential testing tools for a class of nonparametric tests for predictability of financial returns that includes, in particular, the directional accuracy and excess profitability tests. We consider both the retrospective context where a researcher wants to track predictability over time in a historical sample, and the monitoring context where a researcher conducts testing as new observations arrive. Throughout, we elaborate on both two-sided and one-sided testing, focusing on linear monitoring boundaries that are continuations of horizontal lines corresponding to retrospective critical values. We illustrate our methodology by testing for directional and mean predictability of returns in a dozen of young stock markets in Eastern Europe.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR) in its series Working Papers with number w0071.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0071

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Related research
Keywords: Testing; monitoring; predictability; stock returns;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Hypothesis Testing
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation and Testing
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1992. "A Simple Nonparametric Test of Predictive Performance," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 561-65, October.
    Other versions:
  3. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2002. "Market timing and return prediction under model instability," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(5), pages 495-510, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Kuan, Chung-Ming & Chen, Mei-Yuan, 1994. "Implementing the fluctuation and moving-estimates tests in dynamic econometric models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 235-239. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Andreou, Elena & Ghysels, Eric, 2006. "Monitoring disruptions in financial markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 77-124. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Rockinger, Michael & Urga, Giovanni, 2001. "A Time-Varying Parameter Model to Test for Predictability and Integration in the Stock Markets of Transition Economies," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(1), pages 73-84, January.
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  10. Mateus, Tiago, 2004. "The risk and predictability of equity returns of the EU accession countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 241-266, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Leisch, Friedrich & Hornik, Kurt & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 2000. "Monitoring Structural Changes With The Generalized Fluctuation Test," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(06), pages 835-854, December. [Downloadable!]
  12. Chu, Chia-Shang James & Hornik, Kurt & Kuan, Chung-Ming, 1995. "The Moving-Estimates Test for Parameter Stability," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(04), pages 699-720, August. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Qi, Min & Wu, Yangru, 2003. "Nonlinear prediction of exchange rates with monetary fundamentals," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 623-640, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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    Other versions:
  16. Timmermann, Allan & Granger, Clive W. J., 2004. "Efficient market hypothesis and forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 15-27. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  17. Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2003. "Financial Asset Returns, Direction-of-Change Forecasting, and Volatility Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 10009, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Zalewska-Mitura, Anna & Hall, Stephen G., 1999. "Examining the first stages of market performance: a test for evolving market efficiency," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 1-12, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2004. "Monitoring for Disruptions in Financial Markets," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-26, CIRANO. [Downloadable!]
  21. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:4:p:699-720 is not listed on IDEAS
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Kovačić, Zlatko, 2007. "Forecasting volatility: Evidence from the Macedonian stock exchange," MPRA Paper 5319, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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