Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Forecasting volatility: Evidence from the Macedonian stock exchange

Contents:

Author Info

  • Kovačić, Zlatko

Abstract

This paper investigates the behavior of stock returns in an emerging stock market namely, the Macedonian Stock Exchange, focusing on the relationship between returns and conditional volatility. The conditional mean follows a GARCH-M model, while for the conditional variance one symmetric (GARCH) and four asymmetric GARCH types of models (EGARCH, GJR, TARCH and PGARCH) were tested. We examine how accurately these GARCH models forecast volatility under various error distributions. Three distributions were assumed, i.e. Gaussian, Student-t and Generalized Error Distribution. The empirical results show the following: (i) the Macedonian stock returns time series display stylized facts such as volatility clustering, high kurtosis, and low starting and slow-decaying autocorrelation function of squared returns; (ii) the asymmetric models show a little evidence on the existence of leverage effect; (iii) the estimated mean equation provide only a weak evidence on the existence of risk premium; (iv) the results are quite robust across different error distributions; and (v) GARCH models with non-Gaussian error distributions are superior to their counterparts estimated under normality in terms of their in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting accuracy.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/5319/
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 5319.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 24 Oct 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:5319

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Schackstr. 4, D-80539 Munich, Germany
Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2219
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-3900
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Stock market; forecasting volatility; South-Eastern Europe; GARCH models; non-Gaussian error distribution; Macedonia;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. John Y. Campbell & Ludger Hentschel, 1991. "No News is Good News: An Asymmetric Model of Changing Volatility in Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 3742, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Sunil Poshakwale & Victor Murinde, 2001. "Modelling the volatility in East European emerging stock markets: evidence on Hungary and Poland," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 445-456.
  3. Dimitar Tonchev & Tae-Hwan Kim, 2004. "Calendar effects in Eastern European financial markets: evidence from the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Slovenia," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(14), pages 1035-1043.
  4. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
  5. Kalvinder K. Sian, . "Threshold Modelling of Stock Return on Eastern European Market," Ace Project Memoranda 96/6, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  6. Shiqing Ling & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Necessary and Sufficient Moment Conditions for the GARCH(r,s) and Asymmetric Power GARCH(r,s) Models," ISER Discussion Paper 0534, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  7. Peter de Goeij, 2004. "Modeling the Conditional Covariance Between Stock and Bond Returns: A Multivariate GARCH Approach," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 2(4), pages 531-564.
  8. Shields, Kalvinder K, 1997. " Threshold Modelling of Stock Return Volatility on Eastern European Markets," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 30(2-3), pages 107-25.
  9. Geert Bekaert & Guojun Wu, 1997. "Asymmetric Volatility and Risk in Equity Markets," NBER Working Papers 6022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Malmsten, Hans & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2004. "Stylized Facts of Financial Time Series and Three Popular Models of Volatility," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 563, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 03 Sep 2004.
  11. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. " On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
  12. Stanislav Anatolyev & Dmitry Shakin, 2006. "Trade intensity in the Russian stock market:dynamics, distribution and determinants," Working Papers w0070, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
  13. Richard A. Ajayi & Seyed Mehdian & Mark J. Perry, 2004. "The Day-of-the-Week Effect in Stock Returns : Further Evidence from Eastern European Emerging Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 40(4), pages 53-62, July.
  14. Krivoruchenko, M.I. & Alessio, E. & Frappietro, V. & Streckert, L.J., 2004. "Modeling stylized facts for financial time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 344(1), pages 263-266.
  15. Pagan, A.R. & Schwert, G.W., 1989. "Alternative Models For Conditional Stock Volatility," Papers 89-02, Rochester, Business - General.
  16. Lorenzo Cappiello & Robert F. Engle & Kevin Sheppard, 2006. "Asymmetric Dynamics in the Correlations of Global Equity and Bond Returns," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(4), pages 537-572.
  17. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
  18. Martin Cihak & Kamil Janacek, . "Stock Market Volatility and Real Processes in the Czech Economy," Ace Project Memoranda 96/16, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  19. Rockinger, Michael & Urga, Giovanni, 2000. "The Evolution of Stock Markets in Transition Economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 456-472, September.
  20. Richard B. Olsen & Ulrich A. Müller & Michel M. Dacorogna & Olivier V. Pictet & Rakhal R. Davé & Dominique M. Guillaume, 1997. "From the bird's eye to the microscope: A survey of new stylized facts of the intra-daily foreign exchange markets (*)," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 95-129.
  21. Christos A. Grambovas, 2003. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Equity Markets," Eastern European Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 41(5), pages 24-48, January.
  22. R. Gaston Gelos & Ratna Sahay, 2001. "Financial market spillovers in transition economies," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 9(1), pages 53-86, March.
  23. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  24. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Shiqing Ling & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Stationarity and the Existence of Moments of a Family of GARCH Processes," ISER Discussion Paper 0535, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  26. Petra Posedel, 2006. "Analysis of the Exchange Rate and Pricing Foreign Currency Options on the Croatian Market: the NGARCH Model as an Alternative to the Black-Scholes Model," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(4), pages 347-368.
  27. Bae, Jinho & Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R., 2007. "Why are stock returns and volatility negatively correlated?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 41-58, January.
  28. Shields, Kalvinder K, 1997. "Stock Return Volatility on Emerging Eastern European Markets," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 65(0), pages 118-38, Supplemen.
  29. Barry Harrison & David Paton, 2005. "Transition, the Evolution of Stock Market Efficiency and Entry into EU: The Case of Romania," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 203-223, 09.
  30. M. I. Krivoruchenko & E. Alessio & V. Frappietro & L. J. Streckert, 2004. "Modeling stylized facts for financial time series," Papers cond-mat/0401009, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2004.
  31. Stanislav Anatolyev, 2006. "Nonparametric retrospection and monitoring of predictability of financial returns," Working Papers w0071, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
  32. R. Cont, 2001. "Empirical properties of asset returns: stylized facts and statistical issues," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(2), pages 223-236.
  33. Murinde V. & Poshakwala S., 2001. "Volatility in the Emerging Stock Markets in Central and Eastern Europe: Evidence on Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Russia and Slovakia," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3-4), pages 73-102, July - De.
  34. Engle, Robert F & Ng, Victor K, 1993. " Measuring and Testing the Impact of News on Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1749-78, December.
  35. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
  36. Maria Kasch-Haroutounian & Simon Price, 2001. "Volatility in the transition markets of Central Europe," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 93-105.
  37. Brailsford, Timothy J. & Faff, Robert W., 1996. "An evaluation of volatility forecasting techniques," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 419-438, April.
  38. R. Golinelli & R. Orsi, 2001. "Hungary and Poland," Working Papers 424, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  39. Onay, Ceylan, 2006. "A Co-integration Analysis Approach to European Union Integration: The Case of Acceding and Candidate Countries," European Integration online Papers (EIoP), European Community Studies Association Austria (ECSA-A), vol. 10, 09.
  40. Angelos Kanas, 1998. "Volatility spillovers across equity markets: European evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 245-256.
  41. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
  42. Wu, Guojun, 2001. "The Determinants of Asymmetric Volatility," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(3), pages 837-59.
  43. Jaeun Shin, 2005. "Stock Returns and Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets," International Journal of Business and Economics, College of Business, and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 4(1), pages 31-43, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:5319. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.