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Effects of macroeconomic variables on Istanbul stock exchange indexes

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  • Cumhur Erdem
  • Cem Kaan Arslan
  • Meziyet Sema Erdem
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    Abstract

    Price volatility spillovers in ISE indexes were analysed based on monthly data from January 1991 to January 2004 for exchange rate, interest rate, inflation, industrial production and M1 money supply. The Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model was used to test univariate volatility spillovers for macroeconomic variables. It was found that there exists unidirectional strong volatility spillover from inflation, interest rate to all stock price indexes. There are spillovers from M1 money supply to financial index, and from exchange rate to both IMKB 100 and industrial indexes. There is no volatility spillover from industrial production to any index.

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    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09603100500120365
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Financial Economics.

    Volume (Year): 15 (2005)
    Issue (Month): 14 ()
    Pages: 987-994

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:15:y:2005:i:14:p:987-994

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    1. Wongbangpo, Praphan & Sharma, Subhash C., 2002. "Stock market and macroeconomic fundamental dynamic interactions: ASEAN-5 countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 27-51.
    2. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    3. Angelos Kanas & George Kouretas, . "Volatility Spillovers between the Black and Official Market for foreign Currency in Greece," Working Papers 9903, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    4. Angelos Kanas, 1998. "Volatility spillovers across equity markets: European evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 245-256.
    5. Peter C.B. Phillips & Pierre Perron, 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 795R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Sep 1987.
    6. Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307.
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    Cited by:
    1. Charles K.D. Adjasi, 2009. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and conditional stock-price volatility in frontier African markets: Evidence from Ghana," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 10(4), pages 333-349, August.
    2. Alenka Kavkler & Mejra Festić, 2011. "Modelling Stock Exchange Index Returns in Different GDP Growth Regimes," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2011(1), pages 3-22.
    3. Guneratne Wickremasinghe, 2011. "The Sri Lankan stock market and the macroeconomy: an empirical investigation," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 28(3), pages 179-195, August.
    4. Maryatmo, Rogatianus, 2010. "Pengaruh Jangka Pendek dan Jangka Panjang Perubahan Suku Bunga dan Kurs Rupiah Terhadap Harga Saham : Studi Empiris di Indonesia (2000:1 – 2010:4)," MPRA Paper 25532, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. repec:eme:jrfpps:v:11:y:2011:i:2:p:84-97 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Khaled Hussainey & Le Khanh Ngoc, 2009. "The impact of macroeconomic indicators on Vietnamese stock prices," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 10(4), pages 321-332, August.

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