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Stock returns and economic activity: the UK case

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  • David Lovatt
  • Ashok Parikh

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationships between real stock returns and a number of financial and economic variables for the UK economy for the period 1980 to 1994. We begin by discussing a theoretical model proposed by Balvers et al. and then re-estimate for the UK what may be regarded as an application of that model by Fama applied to the US market. This reproduces Fama's main results. For the UK we than suggest a slightly, different application of the Balvers model, the most important feature of which is the use of expectational macro-economic variables instead of Fama's use of leading values of industrial production. We then go on to investigate the unit root properties of the data and show that much of the data is indeed characterized by the presence of unit root non stationarity In the light of this, we propose an application of the Phillips-Loretan error-correction model and show that this provides a plausible relationship between real stock returns and most of the financial and economic variables.

Suggested Citation

  • David Lovatt & Ashok Parikh, 2000. "Stock returns and economic activity: the UK case," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 280-297.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:6:y:2000:i:3:p:280-297
    DOI: 10.1080/13518470050085102
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter C. B. Phillips & Mico Loretan, 1991. "Estimating Long-run Economic Equilibria," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(3), pages 407-436.
    2. Ashok Parikh & David Lovatt, 1998. "Modelling real capital gains in the UK stock market," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(6), pages 337-342.
    3. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
    4. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
    5. Fama, Eugene F, 1990. "Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
    6. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
    7. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
    8. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    9. Black, Angela & Fraser, Patricia, 1995. "U.K. Stock Returns: Predictability and Business Conditions," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 63(0), pages 85-102, Suppl..
    10. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
    11. David Morelli, 1999. "Tests of structural change using factor analysis in equity returns," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(4), pages 203-207.
    12. Balvers, Ronald J & Cosimano, Thomas F & McDonald, Bill, 1990. "Predicting Stock Returns in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1109-1128, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Azzam, Islam, 2010. "Stock exchange demutualization and performance," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 211-222.
    2. Munjid, Modhaa & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "The causal relationship between the macroeconomic variables and the stock price: the case of Brazil," MPRA Paper 98779, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Pathan, Rubina & Masih, Mansur, 2013. "Relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock market index: evidence from India," MPRA Paper 63302, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Henryk Gurgul & Milena Suliga & Tomasz Wojtowicz, 2012. "Responses of the Warsaw Stock Exchange to the U.S. macroeconomic data announcements," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 12, pages 41-59.
    5. Neil Kellard & John Nankervis & Fotis Papadimitriou, 2007. "Predicting the UK Equity Premium with Dividend Ratios: An Out-Of-Sample Recursive Residuals Graphical Approach," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 129, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    6. Abbas, Amir & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Islamic stock index, conventional stock index and macroeconomic variables," MPRA Paper 104806, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Kizys, Renatas & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2010. "The business cycle and the equity risk premium in real time," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 711-722, October.

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    Stock Market Models Cointegration;

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