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Mercado Accionario y Crecimiento Económico en Chile

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Author Info
Eduardo Walker

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Abstract

Based on Chilean evidence, the paper concludes that historical stock returns are useful for explaining future production growth rates, up to two years in advance. Growth rates up to two years in the future significantly explain past returns. When variables that capture expected returns and shocks to discount rates are included, regression analysis is able to explain between 26 percent an 59 percent of stock return variability. Results are generally consistent with the previous literature but, given the biases that may be present in the coefficients of the future growth rates that explain returns, we cast doubt on the interpretation of the sign of the lagged interest rate, that relates it to the business cycle. The relationship between stock returns and future growth also gives an explanation to a possible "puzzle": the high first-order autocorrelations for monthly returns during the period 1990-93 can be attributed to successive news about future production rates.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. in its journal Cuadernos de Economía.

Volume (Year): 35 (1998)
Issue (Month): 104 ()
Pages: 49-72
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Handle: RePEc:ioe:cuadec:v:35:y:1998:i:104:p:49-72

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Joel Lander & Athanasios Orphanides & Martha Douvogiannis, 1997. "Earnings forecasts and the predictability of stock returns: evidence from trading the S&P," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-6, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  2. Ball, Ray & Kothari, S. P., 1989. "Nonstationary expected returns : Implications for tests of market efficiency and serial correlation in returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 51-74, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Elton, Edwin J & Gruber, Martin J & Blake, Christopher R, 1995. " Fundamental Economic Variables, Expected Returns, and Bond Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1229-56, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Geske, Robert & Roll, Richard, 1983. " The Fiscal and Monetary Linkage between Stock Returns and Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(1), pages 1-33, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Pindyck, Robert S, 1984. "Risk, Inflation, and the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 335-51, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Fama, Eugene F, 1990. " Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Hodrick, Robert J, 1992. "Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 357-86. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Keim, Donald B. & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1986. "Predicting returns in the stock and bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 357-390, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Balvers, Ronald J & Cosimano, Thomas F & McDonald, Bill, 1990. " Predicting Stock Returns in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1109-28, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Robert J. Shiller, 1984. "Stock Prices and Social Dynamics," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 719R, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  14. Christopher Neely & Paul Weller, 1999. "Predictability in international asset returns: a reexamination," Working Papers 1997-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  15. De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. " Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Cochrane, John H., 1991. "Volatility tests and efficient markets : A review essay," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 463-485, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Geert Bekaert & Robert J. Hodrick, 1992. "Characterizing Predictable Components in Excess Returns on Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets," NBER Working Papers 3790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Se Kyu Choi-Ha & Luis Felipe Lagos, 2003. "El Dinero como Indicador Líder," Cuadernos de Economía (Latin American Journal of Economics), Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 40(120), pages 259-283. [Downloadable!]
  2. Fernando Lefort & Eduardo Walker, 1999. "El Dólar Como Activo Financiero: Teoría y Evidencia Chilena," Cuadernos de Economía (Latin American Journal of Economics), Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 36(109), pages 1035-1066. [Downloadable!]
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