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The business cycle and the equity risk premium in real time

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  • Kizys, Renatas
  • Pierdzioch, Christian

Abstract

Building on the stochastic discount factor model, we estimated a multivariate exponential GARCH-in-mean model to analyze the link between the business cycle and the equity risk premium in the United States. In order to measure the business cycle, we used revised and real-time monthly data on industrial production for the period from 1965 to 2008. The main result of our empirical analysis is that estimates of the equity risk premium based on real-time macroeconomic data may significantly differ from estimates of the equity risk premium based on revised macroeconomic data.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Review of Economics & Finance.

Volume (Year): 19 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (October)
Pages: 711-722

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Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:19:y:2010:i:4:p:711-722

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165

Related research

Keywords: Stochastic discount factor model Multivariate exponential GARCH model Equity risk premium Real-time macroeconomic data;

References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Floros, Christos & Kizys, Renatas & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2013. "Financial crises, the decoupling–recoupling hypothesis, and the risk premium on the Greek stock index futures market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 166-173.
  2. María-Dolores, Ramón & Londoño, Juan M. & Vázquez Pérez, Jesús, 2012. "The Effect of Data Revisions on the Basic New Keynesian Model," DFAEII Working Papers 2012-05, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.

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