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Investing for the long-run in European real estate

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Author Info
Carolina Fugazza
Massimo Guidolin
Giovanna Nicodano

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Abstract

We calculate optimal portfolio choices for a long-horizon, risk-averse investor who diversifies among European stocks, bonds, real estate, and cash, when excess asset returns are predictable. Simulations are performed for scenarios involving different risk aversion levels, horizons, and statistical models capturing predictability in risk premia. Importantly, under one of the scenarios, the investor takes into account the parameter uncertainty implied by the use of estimated coefficients to characterize predictability. We find that real estate ought to play a significant role in optimal portfolio choices, with weights between 12 and 44 percent. Under plausible assumptions, the welfare costs of either ignoring predictability or restricting portfolio choices to traditional financial assets only are found to be in the order of 150-300 basis points per year. These results are robust to changes in the benchmarks and in the statistical framework.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2006-028.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2006-028

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Keywords: Real estate investment ; Rate of return ; European Union;

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Cited by:
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  1. Luca Benzoni & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2007. "Portfolio choice over the life-cycle when the stock and labor markets are cointegrated," Working Paper Series WP-07-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  2. Massimo Guidolin & Carrie Fangzhou Na, 2007. "The economic and statistical value of forecast combinations under regime switching: an application to predictable U.S. returns," Working Papers 2006-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  3. Giorgio Bellettini & Filippo Taddei, 2009. "Real Estate Prices and the Importance of Bequest Taxation," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Carolina Fugazza & Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2009. "Time and risk diversification in real estate investments: assessing the ex post economic value," Working Papers 2009-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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