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Asset Allocation and Predictability of Real Estate Returns

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    Abstract

    We examine the issue of optimal asset allocation among three broad classes of assetsÐÐLarge Stocks (proxied by the S&P composite index); real estate assets (a portfolio of thirty Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) traded on major stock exchanges); and the risk-free asset (the one-month T-bill), employing the evidence on their predictability. An active strategy of investing in the assets, using predicted returns from our model outperforms investing in passive strategies, which are combinations of asset classes with fixed weights for the entire period of the study. Thus our superior performance is not due to diversification alone.

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    File URL: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/papers/pdf/past/vol07n04/v07p469.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by American Real Estate Society in its journal Journal of Real Estate Research.

    Volume (Year): 7 (1992)
    Issue (Month): 4 ()
    Pages: 469-484

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    Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:7:n:4:1992:p:469-484

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    Postal: American Real Estate Society Clemson University School of Business & Behavioral Science Department of Finance 401 Sirrine Hall Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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    Web page: http://www.aresnet.org/

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    Postal: Diane Quarles American Real Estate Society Manager of Member Services Clemson University Box 341323 Clemson, SC 29634-1323
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    Web: http://aux.zicklin.baruch.cuny.edu/jrer/about/get.htm

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    1. Balvers, Ronald J & Cosimano, Thomas F & McDonald, Bill, 1990. " Predicting Stock Returns in an Efficient Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1109-28, September.
    2. Berkowitz, Stephen A & Logue, Dennis E & Noser, Eugene A, Jr, 1988. " The Total Cost of Transactions on the NYSE," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(1), pages 97-112, March.
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    Cited by:
    1. Benjamas Jirasakuldech & Robert Campbell & John Knight, 2006. "Are There Rational Speculative Bubbles in REITs?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 105-127, March.
    2. Glenn R. Mueller & Keith R. Pauley, 1995. "The Effect of Interest-Rate Movements on Real Estate Investment Trusts," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 10(3), pages 319-326.
    3. Carolina Fugazza & Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2007. "Investing for the Long-run in European Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 35-80, January.
    4. Armonat, Stefan & Pfnür, Andreas, 2002. "Basel II and the German credit crunch?," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 35585, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    5. Thomas C. Chiang & Hooi Hooi Lean & Wing-Keung Wong, 2008. "Do REITs Outperform Stocks and Fixed-Income Assets? New Evidence from Mean-Variance and Stochastic Dominance Approaches," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 1(1), pages 1-40, December.
    6. Carolina Fugazza & Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2009. "Time and risk diversification in real estate investments: assessing the ex post economic value," Working Papers 2009-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    7. Camilo Serrano & Martin Hoesli, 2012. "Fractional Cointegration Analysis of Securitized Real Estate," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 319-338, April.
    8. Michael Cooper & David H. Downs, 1999. "Real Estate Securities and a Filter-based, Short-term Trading Strategy," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(2), pages 313-334.

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