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Investing for the Long-run in European Real Estate

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  • Carolina Fugazza

    ()

  • Massimo Guidolin
  • Giovanna Nicodano

Abstract

We calculate optimal portfolio choices for a long-horizon, risk-averse investor who diversifies among European stocks, bonds, real estate, and cash, when excess asset returns are predictable. Simulations are performed for scenarios involving different risk aversion levels, horizons, and statistical models capturing predictability in risk premia. Importantly, under one of the scenarios, the investor takes into account the parameter uncertainty implied by the use of estimated coefficients to characterize predictability. We find that real estate ought to play a significant role in optimal portfolio choices, with weights between 12 and 44%. Under plausible assumptions, the welfare costs of either ignoring predictability or restricting portfolio choices to traditional financial assets only are found to be in the order of 150–300 basis points per year. These results are robust to changes in the benchmarks and in the statistical framework. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Springer in its journal The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics.

Volume (Year): 34 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 35-80

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Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:34:y:2007:i:1:p:35-80

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Web page: http://www.springerlink.com/link.asp?id=102945

Related research

Keywords: Optimal asset allocation; Real estate; Predictability; Parameter uncertainty; G11; L85;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Luca Benzoni & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2007. "Portfolio choice over the life-cycle when the stock and labor markets are cointegrated," Working Paper Series WP-07-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  2. Carolina Fugazza & Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2009. "Time and risk diversification in real estate investments: assessing the ex post economic value," Working Papers 2009-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  3. Diego A. Salzman & Remco C.J. Zwinkels, 2013. "Behavioural Real Estate," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-088/IV/DSF58, Tinbergen Institute.
  4. Christian Rehring, 2012. "Real Estate in a Mixed‐Asset Portfolio: The Role of the Investment Horizon," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 40(1), pages 65-95, 03.
  5. Signori, Ombretta & Brière, Marie, 2012. "Inflation-Hedging Portfolios : Economic Regimes Matter," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/9296, Paris Dauphine University.
  6. Brière, Marie & Signori, Ombretta, 2013. "Hedging inflation risk in a developing economy: The case of Brazil," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 209-222.
  7. Brière, Marie & Signori, Ombretta, 2011. "Inflation-hedging Portfolios in Different Regimes," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/7744, Paris Dauphine University.
  8. Christian Rehring & Steffen Sebastian, 2011. "Dynamics of commercial real estate asset markets, return volatility and the investment horizon," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 291-315, June.
  9. Gregory H. MacKinnon & Ashraf Al Zaman, 2009. "Real Estate for the Long Term: The Effect of Return Predictability on Long-Horizon Allocations," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 37(1), pages 117-153.
  10. Giorgio Bellettini & Filippo Taddei, 2009. "Real Estate Prices and the Importance of Bequest Taxation," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 107, Collegio Carlo Alberto, revised 2011.
  11. Elias OIKARINEN & Martin HOESLI & Camilo SERRANO, . "Linkages Between Direct and Securitized Real Estate," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 09-26, Swiss Finance Institute.
  12. Daniele Bianchi & Massimo Guidolin, 2014. "Can Linear Predictability Models Time Bull and Bear Real Estate Markets? Out-of-Sample Evidence from REIT Portfolios," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 116-164, July.
  13. Massimo Guidolin & Carrie Fangzhou Na, 2007. "The economic and statistical value of forecast combinations under regime switching: an application to predictable U.S. returns," Working Papers 2006-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  14. Marie Brière & Ombretta Signori, 2011. "Inflation hedging portfolios in different regimes," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Portfolio and risk management for central banks and sovereign wealth funds, volume 58, pages 139-163 Bank for International Settlements.
  15. Hoevenaars, Roy P.M.M. & Molenaar, Roderick D.J. & Schotman, Peter C. & Steenkamp, Tom B.M., 2008. "Strategic asset allocation with liabilities: Beyond stocks and bonds," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 2939-2970, September.
  16. Dirk Brounen & Melissa Porras Prado & Marno Verbeek, 2010. "Real Estate in an ALM Framework: The Case of Fair Value Accounting," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(4), pages 775-804, Winter.

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