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The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums in Real Estate Returns

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Author Info
Karolyi, G Andrew
Sanders, Anthony B

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Abstract

We examine the predictable components of returns on stocks, bonds, and real estate investment trusts (REITs). We employ a multiple-beta asset pricing model and find that there are varying degrees of predictability among stocks, bonds, and REITs. Furthermore, we find that most of the predictability of returns is associated with the economic variables employed in the asset pricing model. The stock market risk premium is highly important in capturing the predictable variation in stock portfolios, and the bond market risk premiums (term and risk structure of interest rates) are important in capturing the predictable variation in bond portfolios. For REITs, however, both the stock and bond market risk premiums capture the predictable variation in returns. REITs have comparable return predictability to stock portfolios. We conclude that there is an important economic risk premium for REITs that are not captured by traditional multiple-beta asset pricing models. Copyright 1998 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Springer in its journal Journal of Real Estate Finance & Economics.

Volume (Year): 17 (1998)
Issue (Month): 3 (November)
Pages: 245-62
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Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:17:y:1998:i:3:p:245-62

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  1. James E. Payne, 2003. "Shocks to macroeconomic state variables and the risk premium of REITs," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 10(11), pages 671-677, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Tracey West & Andrew C. Worthington, 2003. "Macroeconomic risk factors in Australian commercial real estate, listed property trust and property sector stock returns: A comparative analysis using GARCH-M," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 160, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology. [Downloadable!]
  3. Dirk Brounen & Piet Eichholtz & David Ling, 2007. "Trading Intensity and Real Estate Performance," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 449-474, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Carolina Fugazza & Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2009. "Time and risk diversification in real estate investments: assessing the ex post economic value," Working Papers 2009-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  5. David Feldman & Shulamith Gross, 2005. "Mortgage Default: Classification Trees Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 369-396, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Carolina Fugazza & Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2006. "Investing for the long-run in European real estate," Working Papers 2006-028, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  7. Kim Liow & Haishan Yang, 2005. "Long-Term Co-Memories and Short-Run Adjustment: Securitized Real Estate and Stock Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 31(3), pages 283-300, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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