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1/N and Long Run Optimal Portfolios: Results for Mixed Asset Menus

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  • Carolina Fugazza
  • Massimo Guidolin
  • Giovanna Nicodano

Abstract

Recent research [e.g., DeMiguel, Garlappi and Uppal, (2009a), Rev. Fin. Studies] has cast doubts on the out-of-sample performance of optimizing portfolio strategies relative to a naive, equally-weighted ones. However, most of the existing results concern the simple case in which an investor has a one-month horizon and mean-variance preferences. In this paper, we examine whether this finding holds for longer investment horizons, when the asset menu includes bonds and real estate beyond stocks and cash, and when the investor is characterized by constant relative risk aversion preferences which are not locally mean-variance for long horizons. Our experiments indicates that power utility investors with horizons of one year and longer would have on average benefited, ex-post, from an optimizing strategy that exploits simple linear predictability in asset returns over the period January 1995 - December 2007. This result is insensitive to the degree of risk aversion, to the number of predictors being included in the forecasting model, and to the deduction of transaction costs from measured portfolio performance.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Collegio Carlo Alberto in its series Carlo Alberto Notebooks with number 190.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cca:wpaper:190

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Keywords: equally weighted portfolios; long investment horizon; real-time strategic asset allocation; public real estate vehicles; ex post performance; predictability; parameter uncertainty;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Alice A. Melkumian, 2012. "The Opportunity Cost of Holding a “Naive” Portfolio," The Journal of Economics, Missouri Valley Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 23-42.
  2. Fabio C. Bagliano & Carolina Fugazza & Giovanna Nicodano, 2012. "Optimal life-cycle portfolios for heterogeneous workers," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 266, Collegio Carlo Alberto, revised 2013.
  3. Jonathan Fletcher, 2011. "An Examination of Dynamic Trading Stategies in UK and US Stock Returns," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(9-10), pages 1290-1310, November.
  4. Bianchi, Daniele & Guidolin, Massimo, 2014. "Can long-run dynamic optimal strategies outperform fixed-mix portfolios? Evidence from multiple data sets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 236(1), pages 160-176.

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