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Prediction in ARMA models with GARCH in Mean Effects

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  • Menelaos Karanasos

Abstract

This paper considers forecasting the conditional mean and variance from an ARMA model with GARCH in mean effects. Expressions for the optimal predictors and their conditional and unconditional MSE's are presented. We also derive the formula for the covariance structure of the process and its conditional variance.

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File URL: http://www.york.ac.uk/media/economics/documents/discussionpapers/1999/9911.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of York in its series Discussion Papers with number 99/11.

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Handle: RePEc:yor:yorken:99/11

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Keywords: ARMA Model; Conditional Moments; GARCH in Mean Effects;

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  1. Karanasos, M., 1998. "A New Method For Obtaining The Autocovariance Of An Arma Model: An Exact Form Solution," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(05), pages 622-640, October.
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Cited by:
  1. Christan Francq & Jean-Michel Zakoian, 2012. "Optimal Predictions of Powers of Conditionally Heteroskedastic Processes," Working Papers 2012-17, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  2. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2006. "25 years of time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 443-473.
  3. Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos & Marika Karanassou, 2000. "A GARCH Model of Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty with Simultaneous Feedback," Working Papers 414, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  4. Christian Conrad & Enno Mammen, 2008. "Nonparametric Regression on Latent Covariates with an Application to Semiparametric GARCH-in-Mean Models," Working Papers 0473, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2008.
  5. Menelaos Karanasos, . "The Covariance Structure of Mixed ARMA Models," Discussion Papers 00/11, Department of Economics, University of York.
  6. Menelaos Karanasos & J. Kim, . "Alternative GARCH in Mean Models: An Application to the Korean Stock Market," Discussion Papers 00/25, Department of Economics, University of York.
  7. Menelaos Karanasos, . "Some Exact Formulae for the Constant Correlation and Diagonal M - Garch Models," Discussion Papers 00/14, Department of Economics, University of York.
  8. Hlouskova, Jaroslava & Schmidheiny, Kurt & Wagner, Martin, 2009. "Multistep predictions for multivariate GARCH models: Closed form solution and the value for portfolio management," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 330-336, March.
  9. Jaroslava Hlouskova & Kurt Schmidheiny & Martin Wagner, 2002. "Multistep Predictions from Multivariate ARMA-GARCH: Models and their Value for Portfolio Management," Diskussionsschriften dp0212, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
  10. Menelaos Karanasos, . "The Covariance Structure of Component and Multivariate Garch Models," Discussion Papers 99/12, Department of Economics, University of York.

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