Aggregate Uncertainty, Forward Looking Behaviour and the Demand for Manufacturing Labour in the UK
AbstractTheory suggests that the level of uncertainty may affect the output and employment decisions of firms, although in general the sign of the effect is ambiguous. A GARCH-M estimator is used to model the conditional variance of GDP. This measure is then employed in backward- and forward-looking specifications of the demand for manufacturing labor. The results are that the level of aggregate uncertainty has a significant negative effect on manufacturing employment and that the forward-looking dynamic specification may be rejected against a backward-looking alternative. Copyright 1994 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Department of Economics, University of Oxford in its journal Oxford Bulletin of Economics & Statistics.
Volume (Year): 56 (1994)
Issue (Month): 3 (August)
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- Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos & Marika Karanassou, 2000. "A GARCH Model of Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty with Simultaneous Feedback," Working Papers 414, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Murray, Jonathan & Sarantis, Nicholas, 1999. "Quality, user cost, forward-looking behavior, and the demand for cars in the UK," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 237-258, May.
- Stuart Glosser & Lonnie Golden, 2005. "Is labour becoming more or less flexible? Changing dynamic behaviour and asymmetries of labour input in US manufacturing," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 29(4), pages 535-557, July.
- Estrella, Arturo, 2004. "The cyclical behavior of optimal bank capital," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1469-1498, June.
- Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos & Marika Karanassou, .
"A GARCH Model of Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty with Simultaneous Feedback,"
00/24, Department of Economics, University of York.
- Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos & Marika Karanassou, 2000. "A GARCH Model of Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty with Simultaneous Feedback," Working Papers 0047, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 2000.
- Dutta Roy, Sudipta, 2004. "Employment dynamics in Indian industry: adjustment lags and the impact of job security regulations," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 233-256, February.
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