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Empirical Phillips Curves in OECD Countries: Has There Been A Common Breakdown?

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Doyle, Matthew

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Abstract

Recent work on U.S. data calls into question the ability of simple Phillips curve models to forecast inflation. This paper asks whether there is similar evidence of a breakdown in the forecasting ability of Phillips curve models in other OECD countries. The results suggests that the ability of a Phillips curve to out-forecast simpler models has deteriorated in many OECD countries. The evidence is less clear as to whether this breakdown can be attributed to structural breaks in the parameters of the Phillips curve

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Paper provided by Iowa State University, Department of Economics in its series Staff General Research Papers with number 12684.

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Length: 22 pages
Date of creation: 25 Sep 2006
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Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:12684

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Keywords: Phillips curve structural breaks forecast breakdown

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E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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