Unobserved-Component Time Series Models with Markov-Switching Heteroscedasticity: Changes in Regime and the Link between Inflation Rates and Inflation Uncertainty
AbstractIn this article, I first extend the standard unobserved-component time series model to include Hamilton's Markov-switching heteroscedasticity. This will provide an alternative to the unobserved-component model with autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity, as developed by Harvey, Ruiz, and Sentana and by Evans and Wachtel. I then apply a generalized version of the model to investigate the link between inflation and its uncertainty (U.S. data, gross national product deflator, 1958:1-1990:4). I assume that inflation consists of a stochastic trend (random-walk) component and a stationary autoregressive component, following Ball and Cecchetti, and a four-state model of U.S. inflation rate is specified. By incorporating regime shifts in both mean and variance structures, I analyze the interaction of mean and variance over long and short horizons. The empirical results show that inflation is costly because higher inflation is associated with higher long-run uncertainty.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.
Volume (Year): 11 (1993)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
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Other versions of this item:
- Kim, C.J., 1992. "Unobserved-Component Time-Series Models with Markov- Switching Heteroskedasticity: Changes in Regimes and the Link between Inflation Rates and Inflation Uncertainty," Papers 92-1, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
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- Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger, 2001.
"Common stochastic trends, common cycles, and asymmetry in economic fluctuations,"
2001-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Kim, Chang-Jin & Piger, Jeremy, 2002. "Common stochastic trends, common cycles, and asymmetry in economic fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1189-1211, September.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy Piger, 2000. "Common Stochastic Trends, Common Cycles, and Asymmetry in Economic Fluctuations," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0021, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
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- Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy Piger, 2000. "Common Stochastic Trends, Common Cycles, and Asymmetry in Economic Fluctuations," Working Papers 0021, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy Piger, 2000. "Common Stochastic Trends, Common Cycles, and Asymmetry in Economic Fluctuations," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1465, Econometric Society.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Chris Murray, 1999.
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0041, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
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- Paul Castillo & Alberto Humala & Vicente Tuesta, 2007. "Monetary Policy, Regime Shifts, and Inflation Uncertainty in Peru (1949-2006)," Working Papers 2007-005, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
- Engel, C. & Kim, C.J., 1996.
"The Long-Run U.S./U.K. real Exchange Rate,"
Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington
96-14, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
- Sharon Kozicki & Barak Hoffman, 1999. "Implications of rounding and rebasing for empirical analysis using consumer price inflation," Research Working Paper 99-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2010. "The links between inﬂation and inﬂation uncertainty at the longer horizon," MPRA Paper 26908, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Achour Maha & Trabelsi Abdelwahed, 2011. "Markov Switching and State-Space Approaches for Investigating the Link between Egyptian Inflation Level and Uncertainty," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 46-62, February.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy Piger & Richard Startz, 2001. "Permanent and transitory components of business cycles: their relative importance and dynamic relationship," International Finance Discussion Papers 703, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- da Silva Filho, Tito Nícias Teixeira, 2005. "Is there too much certainty when measuring uncertainty," MPRA Paper 16383, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- C.S. Bos & S.J. Koopman & M. Ooms, 2007.
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Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
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- Charles S. Bos & Siem Jan Koopman & Marius Ooms, 2007. "Long memory modelling of inflation with stochastic variance and structural breaks," CREATES Research Papers 2007-44, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- Kim Chung-Han, 2000. "Balassa-Samuelson Theory and Predictability of the US/UK Real Exchange Rate," International Economic Journal, Korean International Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 101-121.
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