Unobserved-Component Time Series Models with Markov-Switching Heteroscedasticity: Changes in Regime and the Link between Inflation Rates and Inflation Uncertainty
AbstractIn this article, I first extend the standard unobserved-component time series model to include Hamilton's Markov-switching heteroscedasticity. This will provide an alternative to the unobserved-component model with autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity, as developed by Harvey, Ruiz, and Sentana and by Evans and Wachtel. I then apply a generalized version of the model to investigate the link between inflation and its uncertainty (U.S. data, gross national product deflator, 1958:1-1990:4). I assume that inflation consists of a stochastic trend (random-walk) component and a stationary autoregressive component, following Ball and Cecchetti, and a four-state model of U.S. inflation rate is specified. By incorporating regime shifts in both mean and variance structures, I analyze the interaction of mean and variance over long and short horizons. The empirical results show that inflation is costly because higher inflation is associated with higher long-run uncertainty.
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by American Statistical Association in its journal Journal of Business and Economic Statistics.
Volume (Year): 11 (1993)
Issue (Month): 3 (July)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.amstat.org/publications/jbes/index.cfm?fuseaction=main
Other versions of this item:
- Kim, C.J., 1992. "Unobserved-Component Time-Series Models with Markov- Switching Heteroskedasticity: Changes in Regimes and the Link between Inflation Rates and Inflation Uncertainty," Papers 92-1, York (Canada) - Department of Economics.
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Chris Murray, 1999.
"Permanent and Transitory Nature of Recessions,"
0041, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Chris Murray, 1999. "Permanent and Transitory Nature of Recessions," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0041, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
- Sharon Kozicki & Barak Hoffman, 1999. "Implications of rounding and rebasing for empirical analysis using consumer price inflation," Research Working Paper 99-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy Piger, 2000.
"Common Stochastic Trends, Common Cycles, and Asymmetry in Economic Fluctuations,"
0021, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
- Kim, Chang-Jin & Piger, Jeremy, 2002. "Common stochastic trends, common cycles, and asymmetry in economic fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1189-1211, September.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy Piger, 2000. "Common Stochastic Trends, Common Cycles, and Asymmetry in Economic Fluctuations," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0021, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger, 2001. "Common stochastic trends, common cycles, and asymmetry in economic fluctuations," Working Papers 2001-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy Piger, 2000. "Common Stochastic Trends, Common Cycles, and Asymmetry in Economic Fluctuations," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1465, Econometric Society.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy Piger, 2000. "Common stochastic trends, common cycles, and asymmetry in economic fluctuations," International Finance Discussion Papers 681, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Paul Castillo & Alberto Humala & Vicente Tuesta, 2007. "Monetary Policy, Regime Shifts, and Inflation Uncertainty in Peru (1949-2006)," Working Papers 2007-005, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
- Achour Maha & Trabelsi Abdelwahed, 2011. "Markov Switching and State-Space Approaches for Investigating the Link between Egyptian Inflation Level and Uncertainty," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 46-62, February.
- Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2010. "The links between inﬂation and inﬂation uncertainty at the longer horizon," MPRA Paper 26908, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carlos, Thiago C. & Marçal, Emerson Fernandes, 2013. "Forecasting Brazilian inflation by its aggregate and disaggregated data: a test of predictive power by forecast horizon," Textos para discussÃ£o 346, Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
- Charles S. Bos & Siem Jan Koopman & Marius Ooms, 2007.
"Long memory modelling of inflation with stochastic variance and structural breaks,"
CREATES Research Papers
2007-44, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- C.S. Bos & S.J. Koopman & M. Ooms, 2007. "Long Memory Modelling of Inflation with Stochastic Variance and Structural Breaks," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-099/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Engel, Charles & Kim, Chang-Jin, 1999.
"The Long-Run U.S./U.K. Real Exchange Rate,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 335-56, August.
- Engel, C. & Kim, C.J., 1996. "The Long-Run U.S./U.K. real Exchange Rate," Working Papers 96-14, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
- Charles Engel & Chang-Jin Kim, 1996. "The Long-Run U.S./U.K. Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 5777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Engel, C. & Kim, C.J., 1996. "The Long-Run U.S./U.K. real Exchange Rate," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 96-14, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
- da Silva Filho, Tito Nícias Teixeira, 2005. "Is there too much certainty when measuring uncertainty," MPRA Paper 16383, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy Piger & Richard Startz, 2001. "Permanent and transitory components of business cycles: their relative importance and dynamic relationship," International Finance Discussion Papers 703, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Kim Chung-Han, 2000. "Balassa-Samuelson Theory and Predictability of the US/UK Real Exchange Rate," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 101-121.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.