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Macro Expectations, Aggregate Uncertainty, and Expected Term Premia

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Author Info

  • Christian D. Dick

    ()
    (Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Mannheim)

  • Maik Schmeling

    ()
    (Department of Economics, Leibniz Universität Hannover)

  • Andreas Schrimpf

    ()
    (Aarhus University and CREATES)

Abstract

Based on individual expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we construct a realtime proxy for expected term premium changes on long-term bonds. We empirically investigate the relation of these bond term premium expectations with expectations about key macroeconomic variables as well as aggregate macroeconomic uncertainty at the level of individual forecasters. We find that expected term premia are (i) time-varying and reasonably persistent, (ii) strongly related to expectations about future output growth, and (iii) positively affected by uncertainty about future output growth and in ation rates. Expectations about real macroeconomic variables seem to matter more than expectations about nominal factors. Additional findings on term structure factors suggest that the level and slope factor capture information related to uncertainty about real and nominal macroeconomic prospects, and that curvature is related to subjective term premium expectations themselves. Finally, an aggregate measure of forecasters' term premium expectations has predictive power for bond excess returns over horizons of up to one year.

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File URL: ftp://ftp.econ.au.dk/creates/rp/10/rp10_49.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series CREATES Research Papers with number 2010-49.

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Length: 46
Date of creation: 27 Aug 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2010-49

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Web page: http://www.econ.au.dk/afn/

Related research

Keywords: Bond Yields; Expectations Hypothesis; Time-varying Risk Premia; Term Premia; Aggregate Uncertainty;

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Cited by:
  1. Dániel Horváth & Péter Kálmán & Zalán Kocsis & Imre Ligeti, 2014. "What factors influence the yield curve?," MNB Bulletin, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary), Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary), vol. 9(1), pages 28-39, March.

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