Federal Reserve Information During the Great Moderation
AbstractUsing data from the period 1970-1991, Romer and Romer (2000) showed that that Federal Reserve forecasts of inflation and output were superior to those provided by commercial forecasters. In this paper, we show that this superior forecasting performance deteriorated after 1991. Over the decade 1992-2001, the superior forecast accuracy of the Fed held only over a very short time horizon and was limited to its forecasts of inflation. In addition, the performance of both the Fed and the commercial forecasters in predicting inflation and output, relative to that of "naive" benchmark models, dropped remarkably during this period. (JEL: E58, E31) (c) 2008 by the European Economic Association.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by MIT Press in its journal Journal of the European Economic Association.
Volume (Year): 6 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2-3 (04-05)
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Web page: http://www.mitpressjournals.org/jeea
Other versions of this item:
- D'Agostino, A & Whelan, K, 2007. "Federal Reserve Information During the Great Moderation," MPRA Paper 6092, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Antonello D’Agostino & Karl Whelan, 2007. "Federal Reserve Information during the Great Moderation," Working Papers 200722, School Of Economics, University College Dublin.
- D'Agostino, Antonello & Whelan, Karl, 2007. "Federal Reserve Information During the Great Moderation," Research Technical Papers 8/RT/07, Central Bank of Ireland.
- D'Agostino, Antonello & Whelan, Karl, 2007. "Federal Reserve information during the great moderation," Open Access publications from University College Dublin urn:hdl:10197/235, University College Dublin.
- D'Agostino, Antonello & Whelan, Karl, 2008. "Federal Reserve information during the great moderation," Open Access publications from University College Dublin urn:hdl:10197/252, University College Dublin.
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
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