Are inflation targets good inflation forecasts?

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Are inflation targets good inflation forecasts?

Author Info

Marie Diron
Benoît Mojon

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Abstract

The authors show that quantified inflation objectives, which have been adopted by many industrialized countries, can be used as rule-of-thumb forecasting devices. Remarkably, they yield smaller forecast errors than widely used forecasting models and the forecasts of professional experts.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its journal Economic Perspectives.

Volume (Year): (2008)
Issue (Month): Q II ()
Pages: 33-45
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhep:y:2008:i:qii:p:33-45:n:v.32no.2

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Jonas D. M. Fisher & Chin Te Liu & Ruilin Zhou, 2002. "When can we forecast inflation?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 32-44. [Downloadable!]
S. Fabiani & M. Druant & I. Hernando & C. Kwapil & B. Landau & C. Loupias & F. Martins & T. Mathä & R. Sabbatini & H. Stahl & A. Stokman, 2005. "The pricing behaviour of firms in the euro area : new survey evidence," Research series 200511-1, National Bank of Belgium. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Fabiani, S. & Druant, M. & Hernando, I. & Kwapil, C. & Landau, B. & Loupias, C. & Martins, F. & Mathä, T. & Sabbatini, R. & Stahl, H. & Stockman, A., 2005. "The Pricing Behaviour of Firms in the Euro Area: New Survey Evidence," Documents de Travail 135, Banque de France. [Downloadable!]
- Silvia Fabiani & Martine Druant & Ignacio Hernando & Claudia Kwapil & Bettina Landau & Claire Loupias & Fernando Martins & Thomas Mathä & Roberto Sabbatini & Harald Stahl & Ad Stokman, 2005. "The pricing behaviour of firms in the Euro area: new survey evidence," Banco de EspaÃ±a Working Papers 0536, Banco de España. [Downloadable!]
- Silvia Fabiani & Claudia Kwapil & Martine Druant & Ignacio Hernando & Bettina Landau & Claire Loupias & Fernando Martins & Thomas Y. Mathä & Roberto Sabbatini & Harald Stahl & Ad C. J. Stokman, 2005. "The pricing behaviour of firms in the euro area - new survey evidence," Working Paper Series 535, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
George Kapetanios & Vincent Labhard & Simon Price, . "Forecast combination and the Bank of England’s suite of statistical forecasting models," Bank of England working papers 323, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Kapetanios, George & Labhard, Vincent & Price, Simon, 2008. "Forecast combination and the Bank of England's suite of statistical forecasting models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 772-792, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Dr. Peter Kenning & Hilke Plassmann, 2004. "NeuroEconomics," Experimental 0412005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]

Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2008. "Phillips Curve Inflation Forecasts," NBER Working Papers 14322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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This page was last updated on 2009-11-18.

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