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Optimal Policy with Partial Information in a Forward-Looking Model: Certainty-Equivalence Redux

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Author Info
Lars E. O. Svensson
Michael Woodford

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Abstract

This paper proves a certainty equivalence result for optimal policy under commitment with symmetric partial information about the state of the economy in a model with forward-looking variables. This result is used in our previous paper, Indicator Variables for Optimal Policy,' which synthesizes what is known about the case of symmetric partial information, and derives useful general formulas for computation of the optimal policy response coefficients and efficient estimates of the state of the economy in the context of a fairly general forward-looking rational-expectations model. In particular, our proof takes into account that, under commitment, the policymaker can affect the future evolution of the observable variables, and thereby potentially affect the future information available.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9430.

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Date of creation: Jan 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9430

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation
E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Woodford, Michael, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(0), pages 1-35, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Pearlman, Joseph & Currie, David & Levine, Paul, 1986. "Rational expectations models with partial information," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 90-105, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Pearlman, Joseph, 1986. "Diverse information and rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 333-338, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Pearlman, Joseph G., 1992. "Reputational and nonreputational policies under partial information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 339-357, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Backus, David & Driffill, John, 1986. "The Consistency of Optimal Policy in Stochastic Rational Expectations Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 124, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521441964 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. J.H. Kalchbrenner & P.A. Tinsley, 1976. "On the use of optimal control in the design of monetary policy," Special Studies Papers 76, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Gerali, Andrea & Lippi, Francesco, 2003. "Optimal Control and Filtering in Linear Forward-looking Economies: A Toolkit," CEPR Discussion Papers 3706, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2006. "Monetary Policy Strategy: How Did We Get Here?," NBER Working Papers 12515, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Svensson, Lars E. O. & Woodford, Michael, 2001. "Indicator Variables for Optimal Policy under Asymmetric Information," Seminar Papers 689, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Lars E.O. Svensson & Michael Wooford, 2000. "Indicator variables for optimal policy," Working Paper Series 12, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Lauri Kajanoja, 2004. "Money as an indicator variable for monetary policy when money demand is forward looking," Macroeconomics 0405003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Liam Graham & Stephen Wright, 2006. "Inspecting the noisy mechanism: the stochastic growth model with partial information," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 207, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
  7. Carl E. Walsh, 2008. "Announcements and the role of policy guidance," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 421-442. [Downloadable!]
  8. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Stefan Krause, 2006. "Inflation Targeting versus Price-Path Targeting: Looking For Improvements," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 399, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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