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Inflation Targeting versus Price-Path Targeting: Looking For Improvements

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  • Stephen G. Cecchetti
  • Stefan Krause

Abstract

Price stability is now the paramount objective for the vast majority of modern central bankers. Combined with changes in central bank structure, this policy framework has yielded low and stable inflation that has brought with it high and stable growth. Taking recent successes as a starting point, we look at the possibility for further improvements. Could countries benefit by shifting from inflation targeting to price-path targeting? Or, should policymakers adopt a hybrid between these two extremes? Whether the optimal rule is pure inflation targeting, pure price-path targeting, or some hybrid depends on the country’s output persistence. Our discussion in this paper focuses not only on hybrid rules, also on the horizon over which such rules should be evaluated. Specifically, we examine the equivalence between a rule with a high weight on inflation targeting that is evaluated only infrequently and one with a high weight on the price-path that is evaluated often. For each country, we are able to derive a horizon for target evaluation that would result in optimal policy. The general result is that when deviations of output from its potential are less persistent, the optimal horizon for target evaluation will be shorter.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 399.

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Date of creation: Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:399

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  1. Álvarez, L. & Dias, D. & Dhyne, E. & Hoffmann, J. & Jonker, N. & Le Bihan, H. & Lünnemann, P. & Rumler, F. & Veronese, G. & Vilmunen, J., 2005. "Price Setting in the Euro Area: Some Stylized Facts from Individual Consumer Price Data," Working papers 136, Banque de France.
  2. Frederic Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2002. "A Decade of Inflation Targeting in the World: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know?," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Raimundo Soto & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series Editor) (ed.), Inflation Targeting: Desing, Performance, Challenges, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 4, pages 171-220 Central Bank of Chile.
  3. Stephen G Cecchetti & Alfonso Flores-Lagunes & Stefan Krause, 2005. "Assessing the Sources of Changes in the Volatility of Real Growth," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Christopher Kent & David Norman (ed.), The Changing Nature of the Business Cycle Reserve Bank of Australia.
  4. Chadha, J.S. & Charles Nolan, 2002. "Inflation and Price Level Targeting in a New Keynesian Model," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0203, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  5. Nessén, Marianne & Vestin, David, 2000. "Average Inflation Targeting," Working Paper Series 119, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  6. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Michael Ehrmann, 1999. "Does Inflation Targeting Increase Output Volatility? An International Comparison of Policymakers' Preferences and Outcomes," NBER Working Papers 7426, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Guy Debelle, 2006. "Has the inflation process changed?," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 21(46), pages 311-352, 04.
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  9. Alexei Onatski & James H. Stock, 1999. "Robust monetary policy under model uncertainty in a small model of the U.S. economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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  19. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 2002. "Monetary policy rules and stability: inflation targeting versus price-level targeting," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Feb 15.
  20. Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Tapia, Matias, 2002. "Inflation targeting in Chile," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 125-146, August.
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  22. Lars E. O. Svensson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Policy with Partial Information in a Forward-Looking Model: Certainty-Equivalence Redux," NBER Working Papers 9430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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