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Credibility and Inflation Targeting in Chile

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  • Claudio Soto
  • Luis F. Céspedes

Abstract

In this paper we present new evidence on the recent changes of the inflationary dynamics for the Chilean economy. We show that price rigidity has increased while the degree indexation based on past inflation has decreased over time. We also show that the passthrough from the exchange rate to traded goods inflation has decreased in recent years. We argue that these changes are related to an enhanced credibility of the monetary policy that has improved the tradeoff faced by the Central Bank. Consistently with this hypothesis, we show that the policy rule that characterizes the behavior of the Central Bank of Chile has become more aggressive in fighting inflation deviations from the target, and also more forward-looking.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 408.

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Date of creation: Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:408

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  1. Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1015, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles Evans, 2001. "Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  3. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
  5. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler & J. David Lopez-Salido, 2001. "European Inflation Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 8218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Christopher J. Erceg and Andrew T. Levin, 2001. "Imperfect Credibility and Inflation Persistence," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 19, Society for Computational Economics.
  7. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: Evidence and some theory," Economics Working Papers 350, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised May 1999.
  8. Adam Posen, 1995. "Central bank independence and disinflationary credibility: a missing link?," Staff Reports 1, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  9. Vittorio Corbo, 1998. "Reaching One-Digit Inflation: The Chilean Experience," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 123-163, November.
  10. Eiji Fuji & Jeannine Bailliu, 2004. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Inflation Environment in Industrialized Countries: An Empirical Investigation," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 135, Society for Computational Economics.
  11. Ghysels, Eric & Hall, Alastair, 1990. "A Test for Structural Stability of Euler Conditions Parameters Estimated via the Generalized Method of Moments Estimator," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 31(2), pages 355-64, May.
  12. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August.
  13. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1977. "Inflation, Capital, and Deficit Finance," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 9(1), pages 141-50, February.
  14. Walsh, Carl E, 1995. "Optimal Contracts for Central Bankers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 150-67, March.
  15. Luis F. Céspedes & Claudio Soto, 2005. "Credibility and Inflation Targeting in an Emerging Market: Lessons from the Chilean Experience," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(3), pages 545-575, December.
  16. Hutchison, M M & Walsh, C E, 1998. "The Output-Inflation Tradeoff and Central Bank Reform: Evidence from New Zealand," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(448), pages 703-25, May.
  17. Ghysels, E. & Guay, A. & Hall, A., 1995. "Predictive Tests for Structural Change with Unknown Breakpoint," Cahiers de recherche 9524, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  18. Ball, Laurence, 1995. "Disinflation with imperfect credibility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 5-23, February.
  19. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 1996. "The exchange rate in a model of pricing-to-market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1007-1021, April.
  20. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Economic Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 2246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Michael Pedersen, 2010. "Propagation of Inflationary Shocks in Chile and an International Comparison of Progagation of Shocks to food and Energy Prices," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 566, Central Bank of Chile.
  2. Wieland, Volker, 2008. "Learning, Endogenous Indexation and Disinflation in the New-Keynesian Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 6749, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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