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Overshooting Meets Inflation Targeting

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  • Jose De Gregorio
  • Eric Parrado

Abstract

This paper revisits Dornbusch’s overshooting model; first, to discuss the conditions of overshooting and undershooting, extending the model to consider monetary policy rules and imperfect capital mobility. And second, to outline Dornbusch’s representation in the context of a simple dynamic neo-Keynesian model that can be used to analyze the impact of persistent changes in monetary policy, among other shocks. The model considers inflation targeting in a small open economy setup, which is characterized by imperfect competition and short-run price rigidity. The main findings of the paper are consistent with the original contribution where the exchange rate overshoots its long run equilibrium. We also show that flexible exchange rates dominate managed exchange rates in terms of output and inflation volatility in the presence of real shocks, while for nominal shocks the reverse is true.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 394.

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Date of creation: Dec 2006
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:394

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  1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, January.
  2. Jacob A. Frenkel & Carlos A. Rodriguez, 1982. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and the Overshooting Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 0832, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Svensson, Lars E O, 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 1989, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2004. "Monetary policy and exchange rate volatility in a small open economy," Economics Working Papers 835, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  5. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2000. "Nominal Income Targeting in an Open-Economy Optimizing Model," NBER Working Papers 6675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," NBER Working Papers 4693, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
  8. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  9. Svensson, L.E.O., 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule," Papers 646, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  10. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti, 2001. "Welfare And Macroeconomic Interdependence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(2), pages 421-445, May.
  11. Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and some Theory," Working Papers 98-01, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  12. Monacelli, Tommaso, 2004. "Into the Mussa puzzle: monetary policy regimes and the real exchange rate in a small open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 191-217, January.
  13. Lane, Philip R., 1999. "The New Open Economy Macroeconomics: a Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 2115, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Kenneth Rogoff, 2002. "Dornbusch's Overshooting Model After Twenty-Five Years," IMF Working Papers 02/39, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  16. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  17. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Wieland, Volker, 2008. "Learning, Endogenous Indexation and Disinflation in the New-Keynesian Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 6749, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Valdivia, Daney & Loayza, Lilian, 2010. "Adopción de metas de inflación y su impacto en las expectativas de inflación y volatilidad del crecimiento económico: evidencia empírica para Bolivia
    [Inflation targeting and its impact on the
    ," MPRA Paper 37328, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Aug 2011.

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