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Dornbusch’s Overshooting Model After Twenty-Five Years

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  • Mr. Kenneth Rogoff

Abstract

This Mundell Fleming lecture at the International Monetary Fund’s 2001 annual research conference marks the 25th anniversary of Rudiger Dornbusch’s masterpiece, “Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics,” a seminal contribution to both policy and research in the field of international finance. This essay provides a simple overview of the model as well as some empirics, not only on exchange rates but on measures of the paper’s influence. Last, but not least, I offer some personal reflections on how Dornbusch conveyed the ideas in his “overshooting model” to inspire a generation of students.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Kenneth Rogoff, 2002. "Dornbusch’s Overshooting Model After Twenty-Five Years," IMF Working Papers 2002/039, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2002/039
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jose De Gregorio & Eric Parrado, 2006. "Overshooting Meets Inflation Targeting," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 394, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Stefan Feuerriegel & Georg Wolff & Dirk Neumann, 2016. "News sentiment and overshooting of exchange rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(44), pages 4238-4250, September.
    3. Bhagwan Chowdhry & Richard Roll & Yihong Xia, 2005. "Extracting Inflation from Stock Returns to Test Purchasing Power Parity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 255-276, March.
    4. Lane, Philip & Ganelli, Giovanni, 2002. "Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis: The Open Economy Dimension," CEPR Discussion Papers 3540, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Jorge Braga de Macedo & Urho Lempinen, 2013. "Exchange rate dynamics revisited," NBER Working Papers 19718, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Christophe Blot, 2005. "Sensibilité du taux de change aux chocs monétaires et budgétaires," Post-Print hal-03606241, HAL.
    7. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2005. "Monetary policy and the illusionary exchange rate puzzle," Working Paper 2005/11, Norges Bank.
    8. Pippenger, John, 2008. "Freely Floating Exchange Rates Do Not Systematically Overshoot," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt97m8z6hw, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    9. Tatjana Dahlhaus & Kristina Hess & Abeer Reza, 2018. "International Transmission Channels of U.S. Quantitative Easing: Evidence from Canada," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(2-3), pages 545-563, March.
    10. Sergio Clavijo & Carlos Varela, 2003. "Flotación Cambiaria y Esterilización Monetaria: La Experiencia de Colombia," Borradores de Economia 256, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    11. Rüth, Sebastian K., 2020. "Shifts in monetary policy and exchange rate dynamics: Is Dornbusch's overshooting hypothesis intact, after all?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    12. Sariye Belgin Akcay, 2023. "Current Account Imbalances, House Prices, and Institutions," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 26(3), pages 342-391.
    13. Arie Krampf, 2012. "The Consolidation of the Anglo-Saxon/European Consensus on Price Stability - From International Coordination to a Rule-Based Monetary Regime," KFG Working Papers p0047, Free University Berlin.
    14. Cyril May & Greg Farrell & Jannie Rossouw, 2018. "Do Monetary Policy Announcements Affect Exchange Rate Returns and Volatility of Returns? Some Evidence from High‐Frequency Intra‐Day South African Data," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 86(3), pages 308-338, September.
    15. Zsolt Darvas & Gábor Rappai & Zoltán Schepp, 2006. "Uncovering Yield Parity: A new insight into the UIP puzzle through the stationarity of long maturity forward rates," DNB Working Papers 098, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    16. Bjørnland, Hilde C., 2009. "Monetary policy and exchange rate overshooting: Dornbusch was right after all," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 64-77, September.
    17. Christophe Blot, 2005. "Sensibilité du taux de change aux chocs monétaires et budgétaires. Une analyse en termes de VAR des fluctuations euro/dollar," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 93(2), pages 287-315.
    18. Mr. Philippe Beaugrand, 2003. "Overshooting and Dollarization in the Democratic Republic of the Congo," IMF Working Papers 2003/105, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Christophe Blot, 2005. "Sensibilité du taux de change aux chocs monétaires et budgétaires," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03606241, HAL.
    20. Heinlein, Reinhold & Krolzig, Hans-Martin, 2012. "On the construction of two-country cointegrated VAR models with an application to the UK and US," VfS Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century 62310, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    21. Saeed Rasekhi, 2011. "Fundamental Modeling Exchange Rate using Genetic Algorithm: A Case Study of European Countries," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 3(6), pages 352-359.
    22. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2368 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Kocięcki, Andrzej & Rubaszek, Michał, 2015. "Bayesian forecasting of real exchange rates with a Dornbusch prior," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 53-60.

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