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Flotación Cambiaria y Esterilización Monetaria: La Experiencia de Colombia

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  • Sergio Clavijo

    ()

  • Carlos Varela

    ()

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    Abstract

    El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar el drenaje de las reservas internacionales debido a los excesos monetarios(el llamado "efecto compensación"), en el contexto de la mayor flexibilización cambiaria colombiana del periodo 1990-2003. En este periodo el costo del arbitraje peso-dólar se ha visto alterado: mientras la flexibilización lo eleva, la desregulación cambiaria lo abarata. Adicionalmente, se evalúa el efecto diferencial que tiene exceso monetario cuanto se trata de crédito de tipo permanente respecto del temporal. Nuestras estimaciones econométricas, bajo diferentes enfoques (monetario, función de reacción, portafolio y keynesiano) nos permiten concluir que existe un "efecto compensación" relativamente alto (-0,78) y no muy diferente de menos uno, aun en el corto plazo y épocas de alta flexibilización cambiaria. También encontramos que este efecto está sustentado en el componente permanente del crédito (salvo en el caso del portafolio) y que probablemente ha sido inferior en cerca de 0,20 respecto al que se producía en los años ochentas, cuando se entregaban como utilidades al gobierno el efecto contable de la devaluación.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 256.

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    Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:256

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    10. Sergio Clavijo, 2002. "Política Monetaria Y Cambiaria En Colombia: Progresos Y Desafíos (1991-2002)," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
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    12. Edwards, Sebastian, 1984. "Coffee, money and inflation in Colombia," World Development, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 12(11-12), pages 1107-1117.
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