On the construction of two-country cointegrated VAR models with an application to the UK and US
AbstractIn this paper we introduce a cointegrated VAR modelling approach for two-country macro dynamics. In order to tackle the curse of dimensionality resulting from the number of variables in multi-country models, we investigate the applicability of the approach by Aoki (1981) frequently used in economic theory. Aoki showed that for a system of linear differential equations, the assumption of country symmetry allows to decouple the dynamics of country averages and country differences into two autonomous subsystems. While this approach can not be applied straightforwardly to economic time series, we generalize Aoki s approach and demonstrate how it can be utilized for the determination of the long-run properties of the system. Symmetry is rejected for the short-run, thus for the given cointegration vectors the final modelling stage is based on the full two-country system. The econometric modelling approach is then enhanced by a general-to-specific model selection procedure, where the VAR based cointegration analysis is combined with a graph-theoretic search for instantaneous causal relations and an automatic general-to-specific reduction of the vector equilibrium correction model. As an application we build up a macro-econometric two-country model for the UK and the US. The empirical study focusses on the effects of monetary policy on the $/ exchange rate. We find interest rate shocks in the UK cause much stronger exchange rate effects than an unanticipated interest rate change by the Fed. --
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association in its series Annual Conference 2012 (Goettingen): New Approaches and Challenges for the Labor Market of the 21st Century with number 62310.
Date of creation: 2012
Date of revision:
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2004.
"A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1055-1084, September.
- Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2003. "A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications," NBER Working Papers 9866, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Vittorio Grilli & Nouriel Roubini, 1995.
"Liquidity Models in Open Economies: Theory and Empirical Evidence,"
95-16, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Grilli, Vittorio & Roubini, Nouriel, 1996. "Liquidity models in open economies: Theory and empirical evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 847-859, April.
- Nouriel Roubini & Vittorio Grilli, 1995. "Liquidity Models in Open Economies: Theory and Empirical Evidence," NBER Working Papers 5313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009, November.
- Kim, Soyoung, 2005. "Monetary Policy, Foreign Exchange Policy, and Delayed Overshooting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(4), pages 775-82, August.
- Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004.
"Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Weiner, S.M., 2001. "Modelling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0119, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Scott M. Weiner, 2002. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 01-38, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Scott M. Weiner, 2001. "Modelling regional interdependencies using a global error-correcting macroeconometric model," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B4-1, International Conferences on Panel Data.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
- Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2009. "The Transmission of International Shocks: A Factor-Augmented VAR Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(s1), pages 71-100, 02.
- Bjørnland, Hilde C., 2009.
"Monetary policy and exchange rate overshooting: Dornbusch was right after all,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 64-77, September.
- Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2009. "Monetary policy and exchange rate overshooting: Dornbusch was right after all," Working Paper 2009/09, Norges Bank.
- Almuth Scholl & Harald Uhlig, 2005.
"New Evidence on the Puzzles. Results from Agnostic Identification on Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates,"
SFB 649 Discussion Papers
SFB649DP2005-037, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Scholl, Almuth & Uhlig, Harald, 2008. "New evidence on the puzzles: Results from agnostic identification on monetary policy and exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 1-13, September.
- David Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2003.
"The Properties of Automatic Gets Modelling,"
2003-W14, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- David Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2003. "The Properties of Automatic Gets Modelling," Economics Series Working Papers 2003-W14, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Hendry, David F & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2003. "The Properties of Automatic Gets Modelling," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 105, Royal Economic Society.
- Voss, G.M. & Willard, L.B., 2009. "Monetary policy and the exchange rate: Evidence from a two-country model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 708-720, December.
- Selva Demiralp & Kevin D. Hoover, 2003.
"Searching for the Causal Structure of a Vector Autoregression,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 745-767, December.
- Kevin Hoover & Selva Demiralp, 2003. "Searching for the Causal Structure of a Vector Autoregression," Working Papers 33, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Tornell, Aaron, 2004. "Exchange rate puzzles and distorted beliefs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 303-333, December.
- Kenneth Rogoff, 2002. "Dornbusch's Overshooting Model After Twenty-Five Years," IMF Working Papers 02/39, International Monetary Fund.
- Peter Spirtes & Clark Glymour & Richard Scheines, 2001. "Causation, Prediction, and Search, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262194406, January.
- Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000.
"The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November.
- Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Lucrezia Reichlin & Marco Lippi, 2000. "The generalised dynamic factor model: identification and estimation," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10143, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1999. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Identification and Estimation," CEPR Discussion Papers 2338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Hafedh Bouakez & Michel Normandin, 2008.
"Fluctuations in the Foreign Exchange Market: How Important are Monetary Policy Shocks?,"
Cahiers de recherche
- Bouakez, Hafedh & Normandin, Michel, 2010. "Fluctuations in the foreign exchange market: How important are monetary policy shocks?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 139-153, May.
- Michael Binder & Qianying Chen & Xuan Zhang, 2010. "On the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Exchange Rates," CESifo Working Paper Series 3162, CESifo Group Munich.
- Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H., 2003.
"Monetary policy's role in exchange rate behavior,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1403-1424, October.
- Granger, Clive W J & Haldrup, Niels, 1997. "Separation in Cointegrated Systems and Persistent-Transitory Decompositions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 59(4), pages 449-63, November.
- Julia Campos & David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2003. "Consistent Model Selection by an Automatic "Gets" Approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 803-819, December.
- Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
- Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
- Reinhold Heinlein & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2012. "Effects of Monetary Policy on the US Dollar/UK Pound Exchange Rate. Is There a “Delayed Overshooting Puzzle”?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 443-467, 08.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.