Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates: A Balanced Two-Country Cointegrated VAR Model Approach
AbstractWe study the exchange rate effects of monetary policy in a balanced macroeconometric two-country model for the US and UK. In contrast to the empirical literature on the 'delayed overshooting puzzle', which consistently treats the domestic and foreign countries unequally in themodelling process, we consider the full model feedback, allowing for a thorough analysis of the system dynamics. The consequential inevitable problem of model dimensionality is tackled in this paper by invoking the approach by Aoki (1981) commonly used in economic theory. Assuming country symmetry in the long-run allows to decouple the two-country macro dynamics of country averages and country differences such that the cointegration analysis can be applied to much smaller systems. Secondly the econometric modelling is general-to-specific, a graph-theoretic approach for the contemporaneous effects combined with an automatic general-to-specific model selection. The resulting parsimonious structural vector equilibrium correction model ensures highly significant impulse responses, revealing a delayed overshooting of the exchange rate in the case of a Bank of England monetary shock but suggests an instantaneous response to a Fed shock. Altogether the response is more pronounced in the former case.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, University of Kent in its series Studies in Economics with number 1321.
Date of creation: Dec 2013
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Department of Economics, University of Kent at Canterbury, Canterbury, Kent, CT2 7NP
Phone: +44 (0)1227 764000
Fax: +44 (0)1227 827850
Web page: http://www.ukc.ac.uk/economics/
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-12-29 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2013-12-29 (Central Banking)
- NEP-ECM-2013-12-29 (Econometrics)
- NEP-MAC-2013-12-29 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2013-12-29 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2009.
"Monetary policy and exchange rate overshooting: Dornbusch was right after all,"
2009/09, Norges Bank.
- Bjørnland, Hilde C., 2009. "Monetary policy and exchange rate overshooting: Dornbusch was right after all," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 64-77, September.
- Scholl, Almuth & Uhlig, Harald, 2008.
"New evidence on the puzzles: Results from agnostic identification on monetary policy and exchange rates,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 1-13, September.
- Almuth Scholl & Harald Uhlig, 2005. "New Evidence on the Puzzles. Results from Agnostic Identification on Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2005-037, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
- Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2012.
"Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling: A Long-Run Structural Approach,"
Oxford University Press, number 9780199650460, September.
- Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2006. "Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling: A Long-Run Structural Approach," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199296859, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Emma Robinson).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.