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Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates: A Balanced Two-Country Cointegrated VAR Model Approach

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  • Reinhold Heinlein

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  • Hans-Martin Krolzig

    ()

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    Abstract

    We study the exchange rate effects of monetary policy in a balanced macroeconometric two-country model for the US and UK. In contrast to the empirical literature on the 'delayed overshooting puzzle', which consistently treats the domestic and foreign countries unequally in themodelling process, we consider the full model feedback, allowing for a thorough analysis of the system dynamics. The consequential inevitable problem of model dimensionality is tackled in this paper by invoking the approach by Aoki (1981) commonly used in economic theory. Assuming country symmetry in the long-run allows to decouple the two-country macro dynamics of country averages and country differences such that the cointegration analysis can be applied to much smaller systems. Secondly the econometric modelling is general-to-specific, a graph-theoretic approach for the contemporaneous effects combined with an automatic general-to-specific model selection. The resulting parsimonious structural vector equilibrium correction model ensures highly significant impulse responses, revealing a delayed overshooting of the exchange rate in the case of a Bank of England monetary shock but suggests an instantaneous response to a Fed shock. Altogether the response is more pronounced in the former case.

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    File URL: ftp://ftp.ukc.ac.uk/pub/ejr/RePEc/ukc/ukcedp/1321.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Kent in its series Studies in Economics with number 1321.

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    Date of creation: Dec 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:1321

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    Postal: Department of Economics, University of Kent at Canterbury, Canterbury, Kent, CT2 7NP
    Phone: +44 (0)1227 764000
    Fax: +44 (0)1227 827850
    Web page: http://www.ukc.ac.uk/economics/

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    Related research

    Keywords: Two-country model; Cointegration; Structural VAR; Gets Model Selection; Monetary Policy; Exchange Rates;

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    1. Hilde C. Bjørnland, 2009. "Monetary policy and exchange rate overshooting: Dornbusch was right after all," Working Paper 2009/09, Norges Bank.
    2. Scholl, Almuth & Uhlig, Harald, 2008. "New evidence on the puzzles: Results from agnostic identification on monetary policy and exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 1-13, September.
    3. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
    4. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2012. "Global and National Macroeconometric Modelling: A Long-Run Structural Approach," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199650460, September.
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