Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Freely Floating Exchange Rates Do Not Systematically Overshoot

Contents:

Author Info

  • Pippenger, John
Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    The exchange rate literature contains two inconsistent strands. There is a large theoretical and empirical literature on overshooting. In that literature overshooting is an important explanation for exchange rate volatility. A separate literature says that exchange rates are martingales and that models do not beat a random walk. Both can not be true. I show that the evidence for overshooting is highly suspect while the evidence that flexible exchange rates are approximately martingales is rock solid. Given the strength of the evidence, models that imply overshooting probably should be rejected out of hand.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/97m8z6hw.pdf;origin=repeccitec
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara in its series University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series with number qt97m8z6hw.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: 01 Feb 2008
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsbec:qt97m8z6hw

    Contact details of provider:
    Postal: 2127 North Hall, Santa Barbara, CA 93106-9210
    Phone: (805) 893-3670
    Fax: (805) 893-8830
    Web page: http://www.escholarship.org/repec/ucsbecon_dwp/
    More information through EDIRC

    Related research

    Keywords: overshooting; exchange rates; volatility; martingales;

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Fudenberg, Drew, 2006. "Advancing Beyond "Advances in Behavioral Economics"," Scholarly Articles 3208222, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    2. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2003. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3808, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Charles Engel, 1992. "Can the Markov Switching Model Forecast Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 4210, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Fong, Wai Mun & Ouliaris, Sam, 1995. "Spectral Tests of the Martingale Hypothesis for Exchange Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(3), pages 255-71, July-Sept.
    5. Fatum, Rasmus & Hutchison, Michael M., 2003. "Effectiveness of Official Daily Foreign Exchange Market Intervention Operations in Japan," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt3rg5p5j2, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    6. anonymous, 2005. "Monetary policy report to the Congress," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Sum, pages 319-343.
    7. Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009, November.
    8. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
    9. Jaehun Chung & Yongmiao Hong, 2007. "Model-free evaluation of directional predictability in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 855-889.
    10. Borgersen, Trond-Arne & G Cke, Matthias, 2007. "Exchange Rate Overshooting And Path-Dependence In International Trade," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(03), pages 295-317, June.
    11. Kuan, Chung-Ming & Liu, Tung, 1995. "Forecasting Exchange Rates Using Feedforward and Recurrent Neural Networks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 347-64, Oct.-Dec..
    12. Sheffrin,Steven M., 1996. "Rational Expectations," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521474009, October.
    13. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    14. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie & Garcia Pascual, Antonio, 2003. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5fc508pt, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    15. Evans, Martin D.D. & Lyons, Richard K., 2005. "Do currency markets absorb news quickly?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 197-217, March.
    16. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    17. Hsieh, David A, 1989. "Testing for Nonlinear Dependence in Daily Foreign Exchange Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62(3), pages 339-68, July.
    18. Kalyvitis, Sarantis & Michaelides, Alexander, 2001. "New evidence on the effects of US monetary policy on exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 255-263, May.
    19. Payne, Richard & Vitale, Paolo, 2001. "A Transaction Level Study of the Effects of Central Bank Intervention of Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 3085, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H., 2003. "Monetary policy's role in exchange rate behavior," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1403-1424, October.
    21. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
    22. anonymous, 2003. "Monetary policy report to the congress," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Aug, pages 351-378.
    23. Christian Pierdzioch, 2007. "Households' Preferences and Exchange Rate Overshooting," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 297-316.
    24. Andersen, Torben M. & Beier, Niels C., 2005. "International transmission of transitory and persistent monetary shocks under imperfect information," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 485-507, July.
    25. Vittorio Grilli & Nouriel Roubini, 1995. "Liquidity Models in Open Economies: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 95-16, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    26. anonymous, 2005. "Monetary policy and the economy," Monograph, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), number 2005mpat.
    27. anonymous, 2005. "Monetary policy report to the Congress," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), issue Spr, pages 117-142.
    28. Jonathan Kearns, 2007. "Commodity Currencies: Why Are Exchange Rate Futures Biased if Commodity Futures Are Not?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(260), pages 60-73, 03.
    29. Kim, Soyoung, 2005. "Monetary Policy, Foreign Exchange Policy, and Delayed Overshooting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(4), pages 775-82, August.
    30. Geman, Hélyette, 2005. "From measure changes to time changes in asset pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 2701-2722, November.
    31. Jang, Kyungho & Ogaki, Masao, 2004. "The effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rates: A structural vector error correction model approach," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 99-114, March.
    32. Sarantis Kalyvitis & Alexander Michaelides, 2001. "New evidence on the effects of US monetary policy on exchange rates," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 197, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    33. S. C. Tsiang, 1959. "Fluctuating Exchange Rates in Countries with Relatively Stable Economies: Some European Experiences after World War I," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 7(2), pages 244-273, October.
    34. Kim, Soyoung, 2003. "Monetary policy, foreign exchange intervention, and the exchange rate in a unifying framework," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 355-386, August.
    35. Kenneth Rogoff, 2002. "Dornbusch's Overshooting Model After Twenty-Five Years," IMF Working Papers 02/39, International Monetary Fund.
    36. Rotheli, Tobias F., 2002. "Bandwagon effects and run patterns in exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 157-166, April.
    37. Michele Cavallo & Fabio Ghironi, 2000. "Net Foreign Assets and the Exchange Rate: Redux Revived," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 505, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Feb 2002.
    38. Soyoung Kim & Sunghyun Henry Kim, 2007. "Financial Panic and Exchange Rate Overshooting during Currency Crises," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 71-89.
    39. Cushman, David O., 2007. "A portfolio balance approach to the Canadian-U.S. exchange rate," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 305-320.
    40. Callen, Jeffrey L & Kwan, Clarence C Y & Yip, Patrick C Y, 1985. "Foreign-Exchange Rate Dynamics: An Empirical Study Using Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(2), pages 149-55, April.
    41. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
    42. Pierdzioch, Christian, 2005. "Noise trading and delayed exchange rate overshooting," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 133-156, September.
    43. anonymous, 2005. "The implementation of monetary policy," Monograph, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), number 2005tiom.
    44. Mikael Bask, 2007. "Chartism and exchange rate volatility," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 301-316.
    45. Drew Fudenberg, 2006. "Advancing Beyond Advances in Behavioral Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 44(3), pages 694-711, September.
    46. Patureau, Lise, 2007. "Pricing-to-market, limited participation and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3281-3320, October.
    47. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Nisit Panthamit, 2006. "Exchange Rate Overshooting in East Asian Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 42(4), pages 5-18, July.
    48. Geman, Hélyette, 2005. "From Measure Changes to Time Changes in Asset Pricing," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/1388, Paris Dauphine University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as in new window

    Cited by:
    1. Pippenger, John, 2009. "Dornbusch Was Wrong: There is no Convincing Evidence of Overshooting, Delayed or Otherwise," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt78k0b5zw, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    2. Pippenger, John, 2012. "The Fragility of Overshooting," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt4rd5j98c, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsbec:qt97m8z6hw. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lisa Schiff).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.