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Extracting Inflation from Stock Returns to Test Purchasing Power Parity

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Author Info
Chowdhry, Bhagwan (U of California, Los Angeles)
Roll, Richard
Xia, Yihong (University of Pennsylvania)
Abstract

We provide a novel method for extracting estimates of realized pure price inflation from stock returns. The key is recognizing that pure price inflation should affect nominal returns of all traded assets by exactly the same amount. The popular Fama-French three-factor model is employed to purge stock returns of real economic factors. We uncover evidence that purchasing power parity holds quite well using the extracted inflation measures.

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Paper provided by University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center in its series Working Papers with number 03-1.

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Date of creation: Jun 2003
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Handle: RePEc:ecl:upafin:03-1

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  1. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2001. "Stock Return Predictability: Is it There?," NBER Working Papers 8207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Adler, Michael & Lehmann, Bruce, 1983. " Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1471-87, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Mussa, Michael, 1982. "A Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 74-104, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Edison, Hali J. & Pauls, B. Dianne, 1993. "A re-assessment of the relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rates: 1974-1990," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 165-187, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Kenneth Rogoff, 2002. "Dornbusch's Overshooting Model After Twenty-Five Years," IMF Working Papers 02/39, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Michael Bleaney & Douglas Laxton, 2003. "Real Interest Rates And Real Exchange Rates: Evidence From Indexed Bonds," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 71(1), pages 65-77, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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