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Reaching One-Digit Inflation: The Chilean Experience

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Author Info
Vittorio Corbo () (Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile)
Abstract

The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the process by which Chile was able to reduce inflation during the 1990s. In this period inflation was gradually reduced from close to 30% per annum in 1990 to only 6% in 1997. The paper concludes that three factors were important in helping to accomplish this performance. First, the independent Central Bank and its tough actions early on -to convey the message that it was ready to stand behind its mandate (to reduce inflation)- helped to shape inflationary expectations and in the process it led to lower wage inflation and ultimately a lower path for core inflation. Second, a restrictive monetary policy, and the foreign exchange intervention policies associated with it, resulted in a trajectory of the nominal exchange rate much below what would have been observed under a PPP rule adjusted for differences in productivity. This result was reinforced by the low credibility of the band reflected in the effect of the location of the exchange rate within the band on the observed rate. Third, the higher rate of growth of labor productivity, given the wage equation, resulted in a lower rate of growth of unit labor cost than otherwise. From these three effects the first effect, the enhanced credibility of the new policy operating through the formation of inflation expectations, was found to be the most important factor behind the success in reducing inflation rate.

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File URL: http://www.cema.edu.ar/publicaciones/download/volume1/corbo.pdf
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Publisher Info
Article provided by Universidad del CEMA in its journal Journal of Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): I (1998)
Issue (Month): (November)
Pages: 123-163
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Handle: RePEc:cem:jaecon:v:1:y:1998:n:1:p:123-163

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Paul R. Krugman & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Stanley Fischer & William J. McDonough, 1999. "Currency Crises," NBER Chapters, in: International Capital Flows, pages 421-466 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Bruno, M., 1991. "High Inflation and the Nominal Anchors of an Open Economy," Princeton Studies in International Economics 183, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  4. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Bruno, Michael, 1978. "Exchange Rates, Import Costs, and Wage-Price Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(3), pages 379-403, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Fischer, Stanley, 1988. "Real Balances, the Exchange Rate, and Indexation: Real Variables in Disinflation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 103(1), pages 27-49, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Sebastian Edwards, 1996. "A Tale of Two Crises: Chile and Mexico," NBER Working Papers 5794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Stanley Fischer, 1988. "Real Balances, the Exchange Rate and Indexation: Real Variables in Disinflation," NBER Working Papers 1497, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Sebastian Edwards, 1993. "Exchange Rates, Inflation and Disinflation: Latin American Experiences," NBER Working Papers 4320, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Vittorio Corbo & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "Inflation Targeting in Latin America," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 105, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Rodrigo Valdés, 2007. "Inflation Targeting in Chile: Experience and Selected Issues," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 22, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  3. Oscar Landerretche & Vittorio Corbo & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "Does Inflation Targeting Make a Difference," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 106, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Laurence Ball & Robert Moffitt, 2001. "Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve," Economics Working Paper Archive 450, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    Other versions:
  5. Sebastian Edwards, 2006. "The Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Inflation Targeting Revisited," NBER Working Papers 12163, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Ilan Goldfajn & Phil Lowe & Rodrigo Valdés, 2005. "Policy Responses to External Shocks: The Experiences of Australia, Brazil and Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 321, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  7. Luis F. Céspedes & Claudio Soto, 2005. "Credibility and Inflation Targeting in an Emerging Market: The Case of Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 312, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  8. Vittorio Corbo, 2000. "Monetary Policy in Latin America in the 90s," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 78, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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