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Inflation Targeting in Latin America

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  • Vittorio Corbo
  • Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel

Abstract

This paper analyzes Latin America’s recent experience with the use of inflation targeting (IT) while the region has made substantial progress toward eradicating high inflation. The paper assesses the implementation and results of inflation targeting in Latin America from a broad perspective. It starts by reviewing the issues relevant for the choice of exchange-rate regimes and monetary frameworks, documenting the evolution of exchange rate and monetary regimes in Latin America during the last two decades. Then it describes the Latin American and world samples of inflation targeters and compares their performance to non-targeters, focusing on their success in meeting inflation targets, their output sacrifice in achieving low inflation, and their output volatility. A more detailed analysis of five IT experiences follows for Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru, with reference to the design of IT in the world sample of inflation targeters. The paper concludes by focusing on the dynamics of inflation reduction in the longest IT experience in the region (the case of Chile), evaluating how IT has affected inflation expectations and hence the effectiveness of monetary policy, using a battery of alternative model estimations and simulations.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Central Bank of Chile in its series Working Papers Central Bank of Chile with number 105.

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Date of creation: Sep 2001
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Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:105

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References

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  1. Svensson, Lars E.O., 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," Seminar Papers 638, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  2. Corbo, Vittorio, 1985. "International Prices, Wages and Inflation in an Open Economy: A Chilean Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(4), pages 564-73, November.
  3. Sebastian Edwards, 1993. "Exchange Rates, Inflation and Disinflation: Latin American Experiences," NBER Working Papers 4320, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Andrew Berg & Paolo Mauro & Michael Mussa & Alexander K. Swoboda & Esteban Jadresic & Paul R. Masson, 2000. "Exchange Rate Regimes in an Increasingly Integrated World Economy," IMF Occasional Papers 193, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Bruno, Michael, 1978. "Exchange Rates, Import Costs, and Wage-Price Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(3), pages 379-403, June.
  6. Sebastian Edwards & Carlos A. Vegh, 1997. "Banks and Macroeconomics Disturbances under Predetermined Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 5977, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1998. "Policy rules and targets: framing the central banker's problem," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jun, pages 1-14.
  8. Felipe Morandé & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2000. "Chile's Peso: Better Than (Just) Living with the Dollar?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 68, Central Bank of Chile.
  9. Mishkin, Frederic S. & Savastano, Miguel A., 2001. "Monetary policy strategies for Latin America," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 415-444, December.
  10. Ben S. Bernanke & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997. "Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 97-116, Spring.
  11. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 73-96, Fall.
  12. Frederic S Mishkin, 1997. "Strategies for Controlling Inflation," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Philip Lowe (ed.), Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting Reserve Bank of Australia.
  13. Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Tapia, Matias, 2002. "Inflation targeting in Chile," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 125-146, August.
  14. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1999. "Inflation stabilization and bop crises in developing countries," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 24, pages 1531-1614 Elsevier.
  15. Andrés Elberg & Vittorio Corbo & José Tessada, 1999. "Monetary Policy in Latin America: Underpinnings and Procedures," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 36(109), pages 897-927.
  16. David Hargreaves & C John McDermott, 1999. "Issues relating to optimal currency areas: theory and implications for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 62, September.
  17. Vittorio Corbo, 1998. "Reaching One-Digit Inflation: The Chilean Experience," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 123-163, November.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Arminio Fraga & Ilan Goldfajn & André Minella, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers Series 76, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  2. Volker Wieland, 2008. "Learning, Endogenous Indexation, and Disinflation in the New-Keynesian Model," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 493, Central Bank of Chile.
  3. Sanchez-Fung, Jose R, 2003. "Inflation targeting and monetary analysis in Chile and Mexico," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 179, Royal Economic Society.
  4. Jorge Lorca, 2005. "Quantifying the Causal Effect of Inflation Targets," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 337, Central Bank of Chile.
  5. Dai, Meixing & Sidiropoulos, Moïse, 2003. "Inflation Targeting, Capital Mobility and Macroeconomic Stability," MPRA Paper 13858, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2005.
  6. Sebastián Edwards, 2007. "The Relationship between Exchange Rates and Inflation Targeting Revisited," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 10, pages 373-413 Central Bank of Chile.
  7. Frederic S. Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "One decade of inflation targeting in the world : What do we know and what do we need to know?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 101, Central Bank of Chile.
  8. Donal McGettigan & Kenji Moriyama & Jean F Noah Ndela Ntsama & Francois Painchaud & Haonan Qu & Chad Steinberg, 2013. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: Taming the Cycle," IMF Working Papers 13/96, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Vittorio Corbo & José A. Tessada, 2003. "Growth and Adjustment in Chile: a Look at the 1990s," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 204, Central Bank of Chile.
  10. Cohen, Joseph N., 2008. "Managing the Faustian bargain: monetary autonomy in the pursuit of development in Eastern Europe and Latin America," MPRA Paper 22435, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  11. Cesar R Sobrino, 2010. "The Effects of Inflation Targeting on the Current Account: An Empirical Examination," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1105-1112.
  12. Chayawadee Chai-anant & Runchana Pongsaparn & Kessarin Tansuwanarat, 2008. "Roles of Exchange Rate in Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting: A Case Study for Thailand," Working Papers 2008-03, Economic Research Department, Bank of Thailand.
  13. Ronald H. Lange, 2013. "Monetary policy reactions and the exchange rate: a regime-switching structural VAR for Canada," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(5), pages 612-632, September.

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