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Announcements and the role of policy guidance

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  • Carl E. Walsh

Abstract

By providing guidance about future economic developments, central banks can affect private sector expectations and decisions. This can improve welfare by reducing private sector forecast errors, but it can also magnify the impact of noise in central bank forecasts. I employ a model of heterogeneous information to compare outcomes under opaque and transparent monetary policies. While better central bank information is always welfare improving, more central bank information may not be.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its journal Review.

Volume (Year): (2008)
Issue (Month): Jul ()
Pages: 421-442

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2008:i:jul:p:421-442:n:v.90no.4

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Keywords: Transparency ; Monetary policy;

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  1. repec:fip:fedgsq:y:2007:i:oct15 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Janet L. Yellen, 2005. "Policymaking on the FOMC: transparency and continuity," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue sep2.
  3. Hyun Song Shin & Jeffery D. Amato, 2003. "Public and private information in monetary policy models," BIS Working Papers 138, Bank for International Settlements.
  4. Christian Hellwig, 2002. "Public Announcements, Adjustment Delays, and the Business Cycle (November 2002)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 208, UCLA Department of Economics.
  5. Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W. & Geraats, Petra M., 2006. "How transparent are central banks?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-21, March.
  6. Carl E. Walsh, 2007. "Transparency, Flexibility, and Inflation Targeting," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 7, pages 227-263 Central Bank of Chile.
  7. Michael Woodford, 2005. "Central Bank Communication and Policy Effectiveness," NBER Working Papers 11898, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Ben S. Bernanke, 2007. "The recent financial turmoil and its economic and policy consequences," Speech 326, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
  10. Petra M. Geraats, 2002. "Central Bank Transparency," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(483), pages 532-565, November.
  11. Faust, Jon & Svensson, Lars E O, 1999. "The Equilibrium Degree of Transparency and Control in Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 2195, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Geraats Petra M., 2005. "Transparency and Reputation: The Publication of Central Bank Forecasts," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 1-28, February.
  13. Camille Cornand & Frank Heinemann, 2008. "Optimal Degree of Public Information Dissemination," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(528), pages 718-742, 04.
  14. Carl E. Walsh, 2007. "Optimal Economic Transparency," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(1), pages 5-36, March.
  15. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2002. "Social Value of Public Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(5), pages 1521-1534, December.
  16. N. Nergiz Dincer & Barry Eichengreen, 2007. "Central Bank Transparency: Where, Why, and with What Effects?," NBER Working Papers 13003, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Lars E. O. Svensson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "Optimal Policy with Partial Information in a Forward-Looking Model: Certainty-Equivalence Redux," NBER Working Papers 9430, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin & Hui Tong, 2006. "Social Value of Public Information: Morris and Shin (2002) Is Actually Pro-Transparency, Not Con: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 453-455, March.
  19. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1986. "A Theory of Ambiguity, Credibility, and Inflation under Discretion and Asymmetric Information," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1099-1128, September.
  20. Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus & Tapia, Matias, 2002. "Inflation targeting in Chile," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 125-146, August.
  21. Walsh, Carl E, 1999. "Announcements, Inflation Targeting and Central Bank Incentives," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 66(262), pages 255-69, May.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Mirkov, Nikola & Natvik, Gisle James, 2013. "Announcements of Interest Rate Forecasts: Do Policymakers Stick to Them?," Working Papers on Finance 1303, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
  2. Turdaliev, Nurlan, 2009. "Transparency in monetary policy: A general equilibrium approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 608-613, May.
  3. Kobayashi, Teruyoshi, 2009. "Announcements and the effectiveness of monetary policy: A view from the US prime rate," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2253-2266, December.
  4. Isabelle SALLE (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113) & Murat YILDIZOGLU (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113) & Marc-Alexandre SENEGAS (GREThA, CNRS, UMR 5113), 2012. "Inflation targeting in a learning economy: An ABM perspective," Cahiers du GREThA 2012-15, Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée.

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