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Has Inflation Targeting Changed Monetary Policy Preferences?

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The literature on inflation targeting has up to now focused on its impact on macroeconomic performance or private expectations. In contrast, this paper proposes to investigate empirically whether the institutional adoption of this framework has changed the policy preferences of the central banker. We test the hypothesis that inflation targeting has constituted a switch towards a greater focus on inflation. We use three complementary methods: a structural break analysis, time-varying parameters and Markov-Switching VAR which make possible to estimate linear or nonlinear, and forward or backward looking specifications, to account for heteroskedasticity without having to assume a date break ex ante. Our main result is that inflation targeting has not led to a stronger response to inflation. We infer that the inflation targeting paradigm should not be confounded with the inflation targeting framework.

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Paper provided by Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE) in its series Documents de Travail de l'OFCE with number 2010-14.

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Date of creation: Jul 2010
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Handle: RePEc:fce:doctra:1014

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Keywords: Monetary Policy; Inflation Targeting; Taylor Rule; Structural Break; Time-Varying coefficients; Markov-Switching VAR;

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  1. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2004. "Were there regime switches in U.S. monetary policy?," Working Paper 2004-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
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  15. Qin, Ting & Enders, Walter, 2008. "In-sample and out-of-sample properties of linear and nonlinear Taylor rules," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 428-443, March.
  16. Assenmacher-Wesche, Katrin, 2006. "Estimating Central Banks' preferences from a time-varying empirical reaction function," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1951-1974, November.
  17. Johnson, David R., 2002. "The effect of inflation targeting on the behavior of expected inflation: evidence from an 11 country panel," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(8), pages 1521-1538, November.
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Cited by:
  1. Marjan Petreski, 2011. "A Markov Switch to Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Peggers with a Focus on the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 57-75.

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