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The housing price boom of the late 1990s: Did inflation targeting matter?

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Author Info

  • Frappa, Sébastien
  • Mésonnier, Jean-Stéphane

Abstract

The recent boom in the housing markets of most developed economies has spurred criticism that inflation targeting central banks may have neglected the build-up of financial imbalances. This paper provides a formal empirical test of such claims, using a standard program evaluation methodology to control for a possible bias due to self-selection into inflation targeting. We consider 17 industrial economies over the period 1980-2007, among which nine countries have targeted inflation at some point. We find robust evidence of a significant positive effect of inflation targeting on real house price growth and on the house price-to-rent ratio.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B7CRR-50CVR3G-1/2/dd90eb5fff237232b61e12d81e37984a
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Stability.

Volume (Year): 6 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 243-254

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Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:6:y:2010:i:4:p:243-254

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jfstabil

Related research

Keywords: Inflation targeting Housing prices Treatment effect OECD countries;

References

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  1. Dell''Ariccia, Giovanni & Igan, Deniz & Laeven, Luc, 2008. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards: Evidence From The Subprime Mortgage Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6683, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  4. Calza, Alessandro & Stracca, Livio & Monacelli, Tommaso, 2009. "Housing finance and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 1069, European Central Bank.
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  7. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, December.
  8. Katrin Assenmacher-Wesche & Stefan Gerlach, 2008. "Ensuring financial stability: financial structure and the impact of monetary policy on asset prices," IEW - Working Papers 361, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  9. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Dag Henning Jacobsen, 2009. "The role of house prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in small open economies," Working Paper 2009/06, Norges Bank.
  10. Torsten Persson, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: how large is the treatment effect?," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 433-462, October.
  11. Lin, Shu & Ye, Haichun, 2007. "Does inflation targeting really make a difference? Evaluating the treatment effect of inflation targeting in seven industrial countries," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2521-2533, November.
  12. M. H. Khalil Timamy, 2005. "Debate," Review of African Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(104-105), pages 383-393, June.
  13. Nathalie Girouard & Mike Kennedy & Paul van den Noord & Christophe André, 2006. "Recent House Price Developments: The Role of Fundamentals," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 475, OECD Publishing.
  14. Heckman, James J & Ichimura, Hidehiko & Todd, Petra, 1998. "Matching as an Econometric Evaluation Estimator," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(2), pages 261-94, April.
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  16. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2004. "Can Inflation Targeting Work in Emerging Market Countries?," NBER Working Papers 10646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. William R. White, 2006. "Is price stability enough?," BIS Working Papers 205, Bank for International Settlements.
  18. Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Luc Laeven & Deniz Igan, 2008. "Credit Booms and Lending Standards," IMF Working Papers 08/106, International Monetary Fund.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Michael D. Bordo & John Landon-Lane, 2013. "Does Expansionary Monetary Policy Cause Asset Price Booms; Some Historical and Empirical Evidence," NBER Working Papers 19585, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Minea, Alexandru & Tapsoba, René, 2014. "Does inflation targeting improve fiscal discipline?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 185-203.
  4. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Macroprudential Regulation and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 185, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  5. Armand Fouejieu Azangue, 2012. "Coping with the Recent Financial Crisis, did Inflation Targeting Make Any Difference?," Working Papers halshs-00826277, HAL.
  6. Dimas M. Fazio & Benjamin M. Tabak & Daniel O. Cajueiro, 2014. "Inflation Targeting and Banking System Soundness: A Comprehensive Analysis," Working Papers Series 347, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  7. Michel Bordo & John Lando-Lane, 2013. "Does Expansionary Monetary Policy Cause Asset Price Booms? Some Historical and Empirical Evidence," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 710, Central Bank of Chile.
  8. Michael D. Bordo & John Landon-Lane, 2013. "What Explains House Price Booms?: History and Empirical Evidence," NBER Working Papers 19584, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Paul Hubert, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Imperfect Information and the Expectations Channel," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1u, Sciences Po.
  10. Allen, Franklin & Carletti, Elena, 2013. "New theories to underpin financial reform," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 242-249.
  11. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: A Perspective from the Developing World," Working Papers Series 324, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

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